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Madagascar has been gripped by widespread anti-government protests since late September 2025, led primarily by young people from Generation Z, frustrated by chronic electricity and water outages, rampant corruption, high unemployment, and the growing cost-of-living crisis.
The Republic of Madagascar is an island country located in the Indian Ocean, off the southeast coast of the African continent, off the coast of Mozambique.
These demonstrations, the largest in years, were inspired by similar youth-led uprisings in Nepal and Sri Lanka, which mobilized through social media with shared slogans and symbols.
At least 22 people have died and more than 100 have been injured in clashes with security forces, according to United Nations figures, although the government disputes the death toll.
President Andry Rajoelina, who came to power in a 2009 coup backed by the elite CAPSAT military unit, initially responded by dismissing his energy minister and subsequently dissolving the entire government in an attempt to appease the protesters.
However, these concessions failed to quell the unrest, which escalated dramatically on October 12, 2025, when CAPSAT soldiers defected, joined the crowd in Antananarivo, and declared control of the armed forces, effectively provoking a mutiny.
Rajoelina fled the country on October 13, 2025, reportedly on a French military plane from Sainte-Marie Airport, after a stopover on Réunion Island, possibly en route to Dubai.
He confirmed his departure on a belated Facebook post from an undisclosed “safe location,” citing fear for his life amid an alleged assassination plot by military and political elements. This marks a dramatic about-turn for the 51-year-old leader, who chaired the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and faced threats of impeachment from opposition lawmakers.
The immediate aftermath of Rajoelina’s flight and the military intervention have destabilized Madagascar’s fragile institutions and economy.
The defection of CAPSAT has fractured the security apparatus, as the unit appointed a new army chief (General Demosthene Pikulas) and a faction of the paramilitary gendarmerie installed its own leader in a public ceremony.
The Senate president, a target of the protests, was removed and temporarily replaced by Jean André Ndremanjary. Rajoelina’s dissolution of parliament, as a last resort, averted an opposition-led impeachment for “dereliction of office,” but has only deepened the leadership vacuum.
Opposition leader Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko described the country as “effectively run by CAPSAT,” raising fears of a full-scale military coup.
The protests have paralyzed Antananarivo. Protesters stormed the town hall, and soldiers escorted the crowd, chanting slogans calling for Rajoelina’s resignation.
While some consider this a triumphant “popular victory,” it has further disrupted essential services: electricity and water shortages persist, amid looting and communication outages. Young protesters, like Adrianarivony Fanomegantsoa, a 22-year-old hotel worker, report that wages barely cover food (for example, 300,000 ariary or about $67 per month), exacerbating the poverty affecting 75% of the population.
Madagascar, already one of the poorest countries in the world with limited access to electricity (one-third of the population), faces heightened instability.
Businesses affected by looting during the protests have received presidential promises of support, but investors are likely to leave the country, increasing its dependence on foreign aid and natural resources such as vanilla exports. Allies such as former Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and businessman Maminiaina Ravatomanga fled to Mauritius, signaling an elite exodus.
France’s role in Rajoelina’s evacuation, coordinated with President Emmanuel Macron, has drawn accusations of neocolonial interference in the former colony, although Macron emphasized the preservation of the “constitutional order.”
This echoes Rajoelina’s rise in 2009, also fueled by French ties. The African Union and the UN have urged restraint, while global Gen Z movements celebrate it as a victory against entrenched power.
The crisis has triggered a cascade of short- and medium-term effects, combining opportunities and risks.
With the presence of soldiers mingling with the protesters, immediate clashes have subsided, but threats to confiscate state media delayed Rajoelina’s speech.
Long-term rival military factions or countercoups could emerge, given Madagascar’s history of post-independence unrest (five coups since 1960). The UN death toll underscores the risk of renewed brutality if dialogue fails.
There is no clear interim authority; CAPSAT promises “order and dialogue with civil society,” but the protesters are demanding elections, not military rule.
The dissolution of Parliament blocks legislative action, which could paralyze aid from IMF and World Bank programs linked to reforms. Corruption investigations, a demand of the protests, could intensify under the new leadership, but could also consolidate military influence.
The protests have highlighted systemic failures, focusing global attention on Madagascar’s poverty (75% below the poverty line) and infrastructure issues.
Youth empowerment could spur energy reforms (e.g., hydroelectric upgrades) and jobs. Negative: Prolonged unrest could lead to famine in rural areas, an exodus of refugees to neighboring countries like Comoros or Mauritius, and a halt to tourism.
France’s participation reinforces critics’ narrative of a “puppet president,” potentially straining EU-Africa relations. Mediation by SADC and the AU is likely necessary, but Rajoelina’s exile could foster Chinese or Russian influence on the resource-rich island. Globally, it amplifies the role of Generation Z in overthrowing regimes, following in the footsteps of Nepal and Sri Lanka.
