Special for followers of codigopostalrd.net
The Phase One agreement, negotiated by US President Donald Trump and mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, was ratified by the Israeli cabinet on October 9, 2025, and entered into force on October 10, 2025, marking the end of active hostilities after nearly two years of conflict that began with the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
This initial phase focuses on immediate de-escalation, a hostage-for-prisoner exchange, a partial Israeli withdrawal, and increased humanitarian aid, as part of a broader 20-point US peace plan.
Beginning on October 12, 2025 (two days after the start of implementation), progress includes the start of Israeli troop repositioning and the first aid convoys, although the full release of hostages is pending a 72-hour deadline ending October 13.
The agreement still does not address long-term issues such as full demilitarization or governance, which are planned for later phases requiring further negotiations.
Immediate cessation of military operations, supervised by a multinational force (approximately 200 troops from the US, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the UAE), with no US ground presence in Gaza.
Hamas releases the remaining 48 Israeli hostages (20 believed to be alive, 28 deceased) within 72 hours; Israel releases approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners (250 of them sentenced to life imprisonment, 1,700 detainees from Gaza, in addition to women and children).
Partial withdrawal from approximately 47% of Gaza, while maintaining control of 53% (including border security zones such as the Netzarim and Philadelphia corridors) for security reasons.
Up to 600 trucks enter Gaza daily through five border crossings, carrying food, medicine, fuel, and reconstruction materials, coordinated by the UN and the Red Crescent.
Transfers through the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC); no public ceremonies; talks on a permanent truce will begin during this phase.
Implementation has been cautious, with reports of continued Israeli attacks on October 9 (killing at least 29 Palestinians) despite ratification, but no serious violations reported in the first 48 hours.
The initial effects of the agreement are primarily humanitarian and tactical, providing short-term relief from the devastation in Gaza (more than 67,000 Palestinians killed, widespread famine, and 90% of the infrastructure destroyed).
However, its benefits are uneven, favoring Israeli security improvements and offering Palestinians a temporary respite without addressing the root causes.
Phase One is a pragmatic tactical pause—hostage release, aid, and de-escalation without rewarding terrorism—rather than a comprehensive peace. Experts estimate a 40% to 50% chance of stability for several months.
This corroborates claims that military dominance (Israel’s dismantling of Hamas infrastructure) forced concessions, in contrast to the previous “empty diplomacy.” From a Palestinian perspective, it is unfairly biased (Israel’s retained control, continued attacks as “sabotage”), potentially perpetuating a “genocide” narrative with no guarantees of self-determination.
Long-term viability depends on Phase Two negotiations (disarmament, technocratic governance under a “Peace Board” chaired by Trump, with figures like Tony Blair, and an international stabilization force). Without comprehensive safeguards—including de-escalation in the West Bank and a path to a Palestinian state—it is a “pause button” that risks being renewed, as Hamas stagnates and Netanyahu prioritizes security measures.
Optimists see momentum for reconstruction; pessimists warn of “exported instability.” As @mehedi_u points out, without a “concrete and funded framework,” short-term calm is traded for long-term volatility. Monitoring indicators such as verified exchanges and aid flows will indicate progress toward lasting peace.
