Late on the night of November 4, 2025, with the polls closing at 9:00 PM (Eastern Time), the first results and betting houses overwhelmingly favored Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani as the next mayor of New York City.
Pre-election polls showed Mamdani with a lead of between 7 and 26 points, and real-time betting on platforms like Polymarket placed his odds above 94% as the vote count began.
Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo trailed far behind in the latest polls, but gained momentum thanks to the controversial endorsement of President Donald Trump, who urged voters to support Cuomo instead of Republican Curtis Sliwa to prevent Mamdani’s victory.
Sliwa garnered a mere 10% of the vote throughout the campaign, placing him in a distant third. Voter turnout was high, potentially reaching 2 million voters—a figure comparable to the closely contested Giuliani-Dinkins race of 1989—and early voting leaned heavily among young people (those under 30, at 13.8%, an increase from 2021), boosting Mamdani’s progressive base.
An official winner has not yet been declared, but projections indicate that Mamdani will secure a simple majority in this three-way race.
The election results signal a potential radical shift in New York City’s governance, testing the viability of bold progressive policies in the largest metropolis in the United States, amid national polarization under a second Trump term.
Mamnani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist and state assemblyman who surprised everyone by winning the Democratic primary in June, based his campaign on transformative proposals such as rent freezes, free public transportation, universal childcare, municipal supermarkets, the decriminalization of sex work, and increased corporate taxes to fund social services.
These proposals, while mobilizing young and working-class voters, have generated considerable alarm among business elites and conservatives.
This has caused unease on Wall Street and market volatility, as financiers view Mamdani’s mayorship as a direct threat to New York’s position as a global financial center.
Policies that seek to raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations could diminish the city’s appeal to businesses, prompting investors like Bill Ackman and Dan Loeb to fund initiatives against Mamdani.
Analysts anticipate short-term downward pressure on sectors such as real estate and finance, as markets may be pricing in increased regulatory risks should similar leftward shifts occur in other cities.
However, experts point out that the mayor’s powers are checked by the City Council and state oversight, limiting sweeping changes.
A potential exodus of residents and talent is a concern, as a Siena College poll indicated that nearly one million New Yorkers—mostly high-income earners—would consider leaving if Mamdani wins, due to fears of tax increases and “socialist” overreach.
This could exacerbate the housing shortage and put pressure on the tax base, creating a long-term economic drag on a city still recovering from post-pandemic challenges.
Conflict with the Trump Administration, since Trump’s endorsement of Cuomo included inflammatory rhetoric labeling Mamdani “anti-Semitic” and linking him to controversial figures, as well as threats to cut federal aid if Mamdani won.
New York City receives approximately $7.4 billion annually in federal funds (6.4% of its budget), primarily for housing and social assistance.
Legally, Trump cannot unilaterally withhold these funds without congressional approval, according to the Funds Withholding Control Act of 1974, although his administration has already suspended $12 million in grants for public transportation safety.
The consequences could include lawsuits from city officials, budget deficits of up to $400 million in fiscal year 2025, and further partisan gridlock, similar to the initial tensions of Trump’s first term.
Mamdani’s rise underscores the Democratic efforts to win back the Latino and youth vote that shifted to the right in 2024, while also highlighting the fissures within the party leadership (for example, Cuomo’s independent candidacy after his primary defeat).
A victory could embolden progressives nationwide, but risks alienating moderates, especially Jewish communities, who have been targeted by defamatory ads linking Mamdani to anti-Israel sentiment.
Progressive reforms versus implementation obstacles, as an accelerated push toward affordable housing and public services is anticipated, but fiscal realities and opposition from the state legislature could temper extreme measures such as the proposal to “defund the police” or eliminate prisons.
High turnout among diverse urban voters suggests consistent support for equity-focused governance.
The uproar on social media reflects deep divisions: the enthusiasm of Mamdani’s supporters, celebrating potential “ambitious promises” like free public transportation, versus grim warnings about a “disaster” city governed by “Marxist” ideals.
Trump’s comments drew a backlash for scapegoating Jewish voters (who make up approximately 9% of New York’s electorate), exacerbating cultural divides.
This election concludes a chaotic cycle marked by Eric Adams’s withdrawal in June amid scandals, Cuomo’s attempted comeback, and Mamdani’s unlikely rise as an outsider backed by the DSA.
If projections hold, Mamdani’s victory would crown the most left-leaning mayor in New York City history, challenging the city’s pro-business ethos and testing progressive governance against federal opposition.
Short-term turbulence looms—market instability, funding disputes, and threats of emigration—but long-term success hinges on pragmatic compromises to avoid alienating the moderate coalition that delivered the victory.
Ultimately, this underscores the urban-rural divide in America: a beacon for bold change in Democratic strongholds, even as Republican-backed state politics prevail. As the count continues overnight, New York City braces for a new era defined by ambition and antagonism.
