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On Sunday, November 2, 2025, the United States is experiencing a transitional autumn weather pattern, strongly influenced by the development of La Niña and an early disruption of the polar vortex.
This has resulted in below-average temperatures across much of the Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the East, with below-normal rainfall in most areas, except for the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest.
The lingering effects of extreme weather events that occurred earlier in 2025, such as hurricanes and flash floods, continue to impact recovery efforts, while the risk of severe weather remains low, although present in isolated areas.
Forecasts indicate the arrival of cold air in the Northeast, which could bring near-freezing nighttime lows, strong winds, and an increased chance of rain in Hawaii due to an approaching cold front.
The immediate and ongoing impacts of this climate situation are multifaceted and affect infrastructure, public health, and daily life:
Temperature risks and cold waves: Above-normal temperatures persist in the western United States, but a cold front is causing temperatures to drop in the Midwest and Great Lakes region, with this intensification expected through November.
In the eastern United States, nighttime temperatures could fall near freezing, posing risks to agriculture, outdoor activities, and vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and the homeless. This coincides with disturbances in the polar vortex, which are forecast to extend cold weather into the winter of 2025-2026 in the United States and Canada.
Rainfall and drought: Much of the continental United States (from California to Florida and into Maine) is experiencing below-average rainfall, exacerbating drought in the Southwest and increasing the risk of wildfires in late fall.
Conversely, the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest have a higher probability of precipitation, which could lead to localized flooding. In Hawaii, strong winds and rain from the incoming front could disrupt travel and affect coastal areas.
Longering storm consequences: The southern Appalachian region continues to recover from Hurricane Helene (early 2025), which caused more than 200 deaths—the highest hurricane death toll in the continental U.S. since Katrina in 2005—in addition to historic flooding, landslides, power outages, and cell phone disruptions that lasted for months.
Flash flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan area in August 2025 caused power outages, basement flooding, and event cancellations, with socioeconomic repercussions that are still being felt. The continued tornado and severe storm activity in 2025 has strained emergency resources across the Great Plains and Midwest.
Social vulnerabilities: Extreme weather disproportionately affects low-income and socially vulnerable communities, exacerbating health risks from exposure to the cold, mold in flood-damaged homes, and disruptions to access to clean water and utilities.
These weather patterns and lingering events have significant short- and long-term consequences for the United States:
Economic and infrastructure strain: Water and electricity infrastructure failures from previous flooding have led to prolonged power outages and repair costs exceeding billions of dollars, delaying economic recovery in affected regions like Appalachia. Drought in the West threatens crops and water supplies, which could drive up food prices and increase demand for heating energy as cold waves approach.
Health and public safety: The more than 200 deaths caused by Helene highlight the deadly impact of storms intensified by La Niña, which favors the formation of more hurricanes in the Atlantic at the end of the season.
Cold fronts increase the risk of hypothermia, while dry conditions exacerbate respiratory problems due to poor air quality. Vulnerable groups face increased displacement, and research shows that extreme events exacerbate inequality.
General environmental and climate repercussions: The early disruption of the polar vortex foreshadows an unstable winter, which could exacerbate soil erosion due to erratic rainfall and affect ecosystems already damaged by the 2025 tornado outbreaks.
Globally, these events contribute to a growing trend of extreme weather events, as documented in recent WMO reports, which link the incidents in the United States to increased climate instability.
The climate situation report for November 2, 2025, highlights the growing convergence between seasonal climate variability and long-term climate change.
The La Niña phenomenon intensifies the risks of cold and storms, while past disasters such as Hurricane Helene expose systemic vulnerabilities.
Among the key findings is the urgent need to invest in resilient infrastructure—such as modernized power grids and flood barriers—to mitigate cascading effects.
Policymakers must prioritize equity in disaster response, directing aid to socially vulnerable areas to reduce disproportionate damage.
On a positive note, below-average hurricane activity in early autumn offers a brief respite, but it is crucial to prepare for an adverse winter.
Overall, these patterns reinforce the need to drastically reduce emissions to decrease the frequency and severity of these events, as unchecked warming continues to fuel more unpredictable and costly extreme weather.
