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Hurricane Melissa, an unprecedented Category 5 storm, made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near Black River around 1:00 p.m. EDT today, with maximum sustained winds of 297 km/h (187 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 892 millibars, making it one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, along with storms such as the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).
At 1:40 p.m., the storm’s center was located approximately 18.1°N 78.0°W, moving northeast at 14.4 km/h (8.8 mph), with its eye lashing the island’s southern coast.
Storm-force winds extend up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the center, with the hurricane’s core producing gusts exceeding 200 mph (322 km/h) in the higher elevations of Jamaica.
Melissa is moving north-northeastward over Jamaica and is expected to reach the Caribbean Sea late this afternoon as a slightly weakened, but still Category 4 or 5, hurricane.
It is forecast to make a second landfall in eastern Cuba tonight (around 8:00-10:00 PM EDT), where it could generate similarly catastrophic conditions before turning northward toward the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, and possibly brushing Bermuda on Friday as a potent extratropical system.
Favorable upper-air winds could allow some reintensification over the warm Caribbean waters after Jamaica, but interaction with the terrain of Cuba is expected to cause gradual weakening thereafter.
The storm’s projected cone of uncertainty places it well east of Florida, but it poses a risk of rip currents along the U.S. East Coast through the weekend.
Forecast Positions and Intensities (from NHC Advisory #29)
Melissa’s landfall has unleashed immediate devastation in Jamaica, described by authorities as a “worst-case scenario” and the island’s most intense storm this century. At 1:40 p.m.:
Catastrophic winds have ripped roofs off homes and buildings, toppled trees, and destroyed medical facilities in the parishes of Black River and St. Elizabeth.
Power outages are widespread, affecting more than 80% of the island, with downed power lines exacerbating risks in rural areas.
Torrential rainfall (up to 50 cm in some areas) is causing life-threatening flash floods and landslides, especially in the Blue Mountains and southern parishes.
Floodwaters are rising rapidly in Kingston and Montego Bay, stranding residents and collapsing drainage systems. Storm surge: Flooding up to 4 meters above normal tide levels is battering coastal communities, eroding beaches, and damaging ports in Kingston Harbour.
Initial casualty reports are limited due to communication outages, but Jamaican authorities have confirmed at least a dozen injuries from projected debris, and the number is feared to rise as rescue operations begin.
Economic losses are projected to exceed $5 billion in Jamaica alone, driven by agriculture (devastated banana and coffee plantations) and tourism infrastructure.
In response, Elon Musk’s Starlink has activated free internet access in Jamaica and the Bahamas until November to facilitate emergency communications.
For Cuba and the Bahamas, similar dangers loom: Cuba faces up to 635 mm of rain and 3-meter storm surges, while the Bahamas could experience 4.5-meter waves and isolated tornadoes.
Conclusions
Hurricane Melissa’s unprecedented intensity highlights the growing risk of climate-change-driven superstorms in the Atlantic, with warmer sea surface temperatures allowing for rapid intensification.
While the storm’s primary impacts are concentrated in Jamaica today, its northward track guarantees threats for several days throughout the Caribbean, underscoring the need for robust regional preparedness.
Jamaican authorities urge residents to remain indoors until the all-clear is given (expected tonight) while international aid is mobilized for recovery.
In the long term, this event could prompt a re-evaluation of building codes and early warning systems in vulnerable island nations. Monitoring continues through NHC advisories; there are no immediate threats to the U.S. mainland, but indirect swells are expected to impact beaches throughout the week.
