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Hurricane Melissa, the third Category 5 storm of the hyperactive 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a monster hurricane with sustained winds of 265-280 km/h (165-175 mph) early on October 28.
Located off the southern coast of Jamaica, it poses a historic threat. The strongest hurricane to approach the island in nearly two centuries of record-keeping. Its slow northwestward movement (around 3-5 km/h) has amplified its dangers, allowing for prolonged exposure to record-breaking Caribbean Sea surface temperatures (28-29°C), which has fueled its explosive growth.
Melissa’s core lashed Jamaica with unprecedented ferocity throughout the day.
Sustained winds of over 257 km/h (165 mph) wrecked coastal infrastructure, downing power lines, uprooting trees, in southern parishes such as St. Elizabeth and Manchester.
In Kingston, gusts exceeding 322 km/h (200 mph) created a “stadium effect” in the eyewall, with reports of broken windows and roofs peeling off like paper.
At least 15 coastal communities, including parts of Kingston, were submerged. Rainfall and inland flooding continued. By nightfall, up to 50 cm of water had fallen, triggering flash flooding in the Blue Mountains and the Cockpit region. Rivers such as the Copper River burst their banks, isolating rural villages and washing away bridges.
Preliminary reports confirm at least 12 deaths in Jamaica (from drowning, landslides, and wind-related accidents), with more than 50 injured during evacuations. More than 300,000 residents were displaced to shelters, and nationwide power outages affected 1.2 million people.
The hurricane’s slow progress has turned a high-wind event into a protracted crisis, exacerbating vulnerabilities in a nation still recovering from previous storms.
Initial estimates put damages at between $5 billion and $10 billion (15-25% of Jamaica’s GDP), surpassing the $4 billion (adjusted) caused by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
Ports, tourist resorts (e.g., Montego Bay), and agricultural lands—vital for banana and coffee exports—face weeks of disruption.
Airports remain closed, leaving thousands of people stranded, including American honeymooners.
Food and water shortages loom as supply chains collapse; the Jamaican government declared a state of emergency and mobilized the military for rescue efforts.
Vulnerable populations in informal settlements and the elderly are the hardest hit, with reports of collapsed clinics and disrupted medical evacuations.
Massive inland flooding has dumped raw sewage into waterways, increasing the risk of cholera, while landslides have buried roads in the eastern part of the country. Coral reefs along the southern coast suffered sediment asphyxiation from storm surges.
The outer bands deposited between 12 and 25 cm of water on Haiti and the Dominican Republic, exacerbating flooding problems and causing three additional deaths. Indirectly, cruise lines rerouted, costing the Caribbean tourism sector millions of dollars daily.
Melissa’s path continues to be guided by weak steering currents, but a mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. is expected to eventually pull it northeastward late on October 28:
Short Term (Rest of October 28). The center of the storm will cross central Jamaica, weakening slightly to a Category 4 (winds of 225-240 km/h) due to land friction, but still with destructive gusts.
On October 29, it will accelerate west-northwestward at 8-16 km/h (5-10 mph) toward southeastern Cuba (near Santiago de Cuba), where it could regain strength over open waters. Landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane is expected in the evening, with rainfall forecasts of 100 to 305 mm (4-12 in).
On October 30, it will cross the central/southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 2-3 hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending 80 km (50 mi) from the center.
A direct hit on Great Inagua or Acklins Island would be possible, prompting the evacuation of more than 50,000 residents.
Furthermore, by October 31, it will track into the southwest Atlantic, turning northeastward away from the U.S. East Coast. Ensemble models show 90% confidence that it will not make landfall on the continental U.S., although swells could generate waves of 8 to 12 feet (2.4 to 3.6 meters) and rip currents on Florida beaches by midweek.
There is uncertainty about the exact timing. An earlier turn to the northeast would avoid stronger impacts on Cuba, while a delay would allow for reintensification over the warm Gulf Stream.
Hurricane Melissa underscores the increasing ferocity of Atlantic storms amid record-breaking ocean warmth, making it a unique event in the Caribbean.
In Jamaica’s case, recovery will take months, requiring international assistance to rebuild resilient infrastructure. The lessons learned from Gilbert and Beryl (2024) highlight the need for elevated shelters and early warning technology.
Regionally, it is putting pressure on the already fragile economies of Haiti and Cuba, where poverty amplifies disaster losses. Globally, Melissa’s rapid intensification (from 56 km/h to 280 km/h in a matter of days) is a clear climate signal, with meteorologists warning of more similar “hypercyclones” if emissions are not curbed.
As the storm moves away from the Caribbean, attention is turning to the humanitarian response. The UN and the Red Cross are mobilizing, but donations and increased volunteering are crucial.
For the United States, it is a reminder to heed NHC warnings. While direct impacts are ruled out, indirect threats, such as waves, justify beach closures.
Stay informed through official sources; resilience begins with preparation. Our thoughts are with those affected: Jamaica, stay strong.
