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At 6:47 a.m. EDT on Monday, October 27, 2025, Hurricane Melissa is an unusual and exceptionally powerful Category 5 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 257 km/h (16 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 917 mb (200 mb).
Its small, 16 km (9 mph) wide eye is moving just 210 km (130 mi) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, moving westward at only 5 km/h (3 mph).
This slowness prolongs and intensifies the storm’s threat, especially for Jamaica, where it is forecast to make landfall Monday night or early Tuesday as a Category 4 or possibly a Category 5 hurricane.
Melissa marks the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season and is on track to be the strongest hurricane on record to directly hit Jamaica, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
The storm’s rapid intensification—from a tropical storm to a Category 5 storm in less than 48 hours—has been driven by record-high Caribbean Sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and deep-ocean heat deposits, conditions exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change.
While the U.S. East Coast faces only minor indirect effects, such as rip currents, the Caribbean is bracing for what meteorologists describe as a “catastrophic and historic” event.
Melissa’s outer rain bands have already begun to lash the region, with torrential rains and gusty winds affecting Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic since Sunday. Major impacts through early Monday morning include:
Jamaica, with tropical-storm-force winds (up to 117 km/h) developing across the island, with heavy rains causing initial flash flooding in low-lying areas such as Kingston.
Evacuation orders remain in effect for coastal communities, but many residents are sheltering in place.
Early reports indicate power outages and minor road closures due to rising waters.
In Haiti and the Dominican Republic, at least five deaths and one missing person have been confirmed due to flooding related to Melissa’s precursor bands as of October 24, and southwestern Haiti is under a tropical storm watch.
Heavy rains (an additional 20 to 40 cm are expected) are triggering landslides on vulnerable, deforested hillsides, isolating remote villages.
There are no major impacts yet in Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, or the Turks and Caicos Islands, but storm surges are generating life-threatening waves along the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica.
The storm’s slow speed (less than 8 km/h) means it will stall over Jamaica for 12 to 24 hours, dumping months’ worth of rain in days and amplifying all the hazards. Expected short- and medium-term consequences include:
Flooding and mudslides: Catastrophic flash flooding is occurring, with rainfall forecasts of 38 to 76 cm (15 to 30 inches) for Jamaica (local highs of up to 101 cm) through Wednesday.
This could wash away roads, bridges, and homes, isolating communities for weeks. On Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula and in the southern Dominican Republic, similar totals risk exacerbating poverty and instability, with the potential to displace tens of thousands of people.
Destructive winds (225 to 265 km/h near the center) will begin to batter Jamaica in the evening, causing widespread roof failures, downed power lines, and building collapses, especially in the mountainous interior.
Prolonged blackouts (days to weeks) and communications outages are expected across 70-90% of the island. Eastern Cuba faces storm surges of 2.8 to 2.7 meters and rainfall of 25 to 50 centimeters Tuesday night, threatening Guantánamo and Santiago de Cuba with similar devastation.
Up to 2.7 to 4 meters above ground level will occur along Jamaica’s southern coast (including Kingston Harbor) between Monday and Tuesday night, flooding ports, beaches, and low-lying neighborhoods.
This could destroy coastal infrastructure, fisheries, and tourist sites, and saltwater intrusion would damage agriculture.
Dozens of deaths could occur from drowning, landslides, and wind-related incidents, particularly among Jamaica’s 2.8 million residents (many of them in substandard housing).
Economic losses could exceed $5 billion to $10 billion across the region, particularly affecting tourism (Jamaica’s most important sector).
Vulnerable populations in Haiti, already recovering from previous disasters, face a worsening humanitarian crisis as the UN mobilizes supplies for more than 100,000 people.
Swelling waves will cause dangerous rip currents on U.S. East Coast beaches by midweek. In the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, 10 to 20 cm of rain are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially causing localized flooding.
Melissa is expected to weaken slightly after landfall but remain a major hurricane as it crosses southeastern Cuba Tuesday night. It will then accelerate northeastward over the Bahamas on Wednesday before turning out to sea east of the U.S.
Hurricane Melissa exemplifies the increasing ferocity of Atlantic hurricanes in a warming climate, where ocean temperatures allow for explosive intensification and slower movement, prolonging misery and magnifying destruction.
For Jamaica, this could be a generational catastrophe, transforming communities, economies, and landscapes for years, much like Hurricanes Katrina (2005) or Ian (2022) elsewhere.
Immediate priorities are to shelter in place, avoid flooded roads, and conserve resources during power outages.
International aid from the U.S., the UN, and neighboring Caribbean countries will be critical to recovery, focusing on resilient reconstruction to mitigate future risks.
Heed the warnings; do not venture out. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for updates. Global support through organizations like the Red Cross can help; Prayers and donations are pouring in on social media. Stay safe.
