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At approximately 5:00 PM EDT (the nearest official time issued by the National Hurricane Center, or NHC), Hurricane Melissa was a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 233 km/h (144 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 941 mb.
The eye of the storm was located approximately 185 km (115 mi) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and was moving slowly westward at 7 km/h (5 mph).
HURRICANE MELISSA NEARS JAMAICA.
shows Melissa churning off Jamaica’s southwestern coast, with 140 mph winds. The storm could become the strongest ever to hit the island.
At 5:42 PM, satellite and reconnaissance data indicate minimal changes in its position and intensity, with the storm maintaining its well-defined eye and symmetrical structure, although slight fluctuations are possible due to its slow movement.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 48 km (30 mi) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach outward up to 330 km (205 mi), already impacting the southern and eastern coasts of Jamaica with wind gusts.
Melissa has experienced extremely rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, progressing from a tropical storm on October 24 to a major hurricane early on October 26.
This is due to warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 29°C (84°F) in the Caribbean, low wind shear, and high atmospheric humidity, conditions exacerbated by ongoing climate trends that have made such intensification events more frequent in late-season Atlantic storms.
Melissa’s impacts are already spreading across the northern Caribbean, and its catastrophic effects are expected to intensify rapidly.
At 5:42 p.m., tropical storm conditions (winds of 63 to 117 km/h) impacted Jamaica, causing initial disruptions such as power outages and coastal erosion.
The humanitarian consequences are severe, particularly in Jamaica and Haiti, where poverty rates exceed 50% and infrastructure is fragile.
Early reports from X (formerly Twitter) include live footage from Kingston harbor showing strong waves and winds, prayers from affected communities, and evacuations of U.S. citizens.
The NHC warns of unprecedented rainfall, which could isolate communities for days and strain limited emergency resources.
Climate change has increased the likelihood of such intense storms by 20% to 30% in late October due to warming oceans, according to a Yale Climate analysis.
Melissa’s track remains slow and uncertain due to a weak steering environment, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) consensus forecast cone (based on top models such as GFS, ECMWF, and HAFS) points to a northward turn driven by a mid-level trough approaching from the west:
Near-term (next 12-24 hours, through the morning of October 27): Continues westward at 5-8 km/h (3-5 mph), remaining off the coast of Jamaica (closest approach is about 90 km south of Kingston by evening).
On Monday (October 27), it will gradually turn northeastward at 8-13 km/h (5-8 mph); outer bands will strengthen over Jamaica.
On Monday night and Tuesday morning (October 27-28), it makes landfall on the southern coast of Jamaica (likely near Black River or Montego Bay) as a Category 4 (high or low) or Category 5 hurricane (winds over 150 mph, pressure ~500-550 mb according to HAFS models).
On Tuesday night (October 28), it crosses eastern Cuba (near Guantanamo Bay) as a major hurricane (Category 3+).
On Wednesday (October 29), it moves southeastern to the Bahamas, where it could weaken to a Category 2-3, but is still dangerous.
Further on (Thursday-Friday, October 30-31), it moves northeastward into the open Atlantic, possibly toward Bermuda; it will transition to extratropical status by the end of the week.
Low confidence in US impacts due to model dispersion: some “spaghetti” storm clusters are hugging the US coast, while others are veering eastward.
This track mirrors aspects of Hurricane Matthew (2016), with a potential loss of lift over the Caribbean that amplifies rainfall.
The uncertainty is due to the storm’s small size and evolving upper-level winds; the NHC’s 5-day cone has a coverage factor of ±240 kilometers.
Hurricane Melissa at 5:42 p.m. on October 26 represents a growing crisis, poised to deliver one of the most devastating blows to Jamaica in modern history, with cascading effects throughout the Caribbean.
Immediate lifesaving actions (sheltering, evacuation, and stockpiling supplies) have already been completed in Jamaica, but the slow pace of the process means a prolonged impact.
In Haiti and Cuba, attention is focused on flood defenses amid already saturated soils. Globally, this storm underscores the ferocity of the 2025 Atlantic season (the 13th named storm, already above-average activity), driven by record-breaking ocean heat, and highlights the need for resilient infrastructure in vulnerable regions.
Recovery will be protracted, as weeks of aid coordination through organizations like the Red Cross and the UN are expected, with crucial international support for reconstruction.
Please monitor hourly NHC updates, as rapid changes are possible. Prayers and solidarity from unaffected areas, as expressed on social media, are vital: stay safe, affected communities.
