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At 2:00 a.m. EDT, 06:00 UTC, on October 26, 2025, Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The center of the storm was located approximately 205 km (125 mi) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, 16.3° N, 76.1° W. Maximum sustained winds reached 195 km/h (120 mph), with higher gusts possible, and the minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
UPDATE: Melissa has exploded from a Tropical Storm to a CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE in just 12 HOURS, with the Hurricane Hunters confirming winds of 115 MPH and a new low pressure of 967 mbar.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (225 km).
This marks a significant intensification from the previous advisory issued at 11:00 PM EDT on October 25, when winds reached 100 knots, 115 mph, and a pressure of 967 mb.
Satellite imagery and reconnaissance data indicate rapid intensification underway, with Melissa exhibiting a well-defined eye and explosive convective activity.
Melissa is currently moving west-southwestward at 5 mph (7 km/h), a slow motion that is expected to persist through tonight. A gradual turn toward the north and northeast is forecast to begin on Monday, October 27, accelerating slightly by midweek.
The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast projects the following positions and intensity changes over the next 120 hours, based on the 03:00 UTC advisory, adjusted for observed intensification:
According to Key Track Milestones, the center is expected to brush or make landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday, October 27-28, as a major hurricane, potentially a Category 4 or 5 storm.
It will then move eastward off Cuba midweek, October 29-30, where it will likely make landfall as a Category 2-3 storm before turning northward into the central Atlantic. Track confidence is moderate, with average errors of ~75 nautical miles at 48 hours.
As of 2:10 a.m., Melissa remains offshore, so direct impacts are limited to swells and outer rainbands affecting coastal areas.
However, the storm’s slow movement and warm waters in the western Caribbean are driving the potential for extreme rainfall, which poses the greatest threat.
No fatalities or major damage have been immediately reported, but preparations are underway across the region.
In Jamaica, rainfall totals of 380 to 760 mm (15 to 30 inches) are expected through midweek, with isolated highs of up to 1,000 mm (40 inches).
This could cause catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially in the southern and eastern parishes.
Urban and riverine flooding could isolate communities and damage infrastructure.
Haiti and southern Hispaniola, including the Dominican Republic, are expecting similar rainfall of 380 to 760 mm (15 to 30 inches), up to 1,000 mm (40 inches) locally, compounding vulnerability caused by previous storms. Life-threatening flooding in low-lying areas and deforested hillsides could displace thousands of people.
In eastern Cuba, 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches), up to 460 mm (18 inches) on higher ground, causing significant flash flooding and landslides in provinces such as Santiago de Cuba and Guantánamo.
Active Watches and Warnings (as of 2:00 AM EDT):
Interests in the southeastern/central Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and Cayman Islands should monitor for updates.
Hurricane Melissa’s explosive intensification, with winds reaching 56 km/h (35 mph) for 7 hours, highlights the growing risks of rapid intensification in a warming climate, far exceeding many models’ forecasts.
The storm is forecast to strike Jamaica as a major hurricane within 48 hours, with cascading effects on Haiti and Cuba.
While weakening is expected after landfall in Jamaica due to terrain interaction, reintensification upon crossing water could maintain threats through the week.
Residents in warning areas should complete preparations immediately, secure their homes, stock up on essential items, and follow evacuation orders.
Over the long term, this event highlights the need for greater regional resilience, including early warning systems and infrastructure improvements in flood-prone areas.
The NHC forecasts a high level of confidence in the near-term track but cautions uncertainty about maximum intensity. Updates will continue every 6 hours; The next advisory will be issued at 8:00 a.m. EDT. Stay safe, and condolences to the affected communities.
