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At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located approximately 270 km (165 mi) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, in the north-central Caribbean Sea.
The storm is moving northwest at a very slow speed of 6 km/h (3 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 986 mb (29.12 in).
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 km (115 mi) from the center. Due to its near-stationary motion over warm waters, Melissa is poised for rapid intensification and is expected to become a hurricane later today, potentially reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) by Sunday.
Past and Current Impacts (as of early Saturday morning):
Melissa has already caused significant devastation in the Caribbean, particularly in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where its slow progress has resulted in prolonged torrential rains and localized flooding.
At least four people have died: three in Haiti (including two from a landslide) and one in the Dominican Republic, with six injuries reported in total.
In the Dominican Republic, nearly 200 homes have been damaged and dozens of water supply systems have been disrupted, affecting more than half a million people.
Flooding and landslides have been reported in southern Hispaniola, exacerbating vulnerability in these flood-prone areas.
Jamaica is currently experiencing rainfall in the outer reaches, and preparations are underway amid warnings of imminent worsening conditions.
The storm’s slow pace is amplifying the risks, with forecasters warning of an onslaught of torrential rain that will linger for several days, potentially triggering life-threatening flash flooding, catastrophic landslides, and destructive winds in the affected regions.
Rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches are expected through Tuesday in southern Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Jamaica, with isolated highs of up to 35 inches on Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula, enough to cause widespread flooding and infrastructure collapse.
Eastern Cuba could see 4 to 8 inches, with up to 12 inches locally. Storm surge along Jamaica’s southern coast could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level near landfall, accompanied by large waves, while swells are already affecting Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba.
If Melissa reaches Category 4 or 5 strength, as some models suggest, the consequences could include prolonged power outages, evacuations, and tens of millions in economic losses, particularly for Jamaica’s tourism and agricultural sectors.
Haiti, still recovering from previous disasters, faces heightened humanitarian risks, including the displacement of thousands of people and disease outbreaks from contaminated water.
Melissa’s forecast track indicates a slow, steady movement, allowing it to remain over the warm Caribbean waters that fuel its growth.
Today (Saturday) through Sunday night, it will move west-northwestward to westward at a speed of 5-8 km/h (3.5-5 mph), with its center near or over Jamaica by late weekend.
From Monday through Tuesday, Melissa will gradually turn northward to the north-northeast, with a possible passage near eastern Cuba by midweek.
Beyond 72 hours, there will be increasing uncertainty, but models suggest a possible northward curve into the western Atlantic, with no impact on the U.S. East Coast for now. Long-term risks for Florida or the Southeast remain low but are being monitored.
The National Hurricane Center’s 5-day forecast covers Jamaica, southern Haiti, and eastern Cuba, with high confidence in stalling in the short term, but increasing dispersion in the long-term direction.
Tropical Storm Melissa represents one of the most worrisome systems of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to date.
Its slow speed and warm sea environment create ideal conditions for explosive growth into a major hurricane, potentially the strongest in the Caribbean this year.
Prolonged exposure to hazards could make it the most impactful storm of the 2025 season, surpassing previous systems in rainfall and flooding.
Immediate priorities include urgent evacuations in Jamaica and Haiti, where hurricane watches are in effect, and monitoring for expansion eastward from Cuba.
While the storm’s track avoids direct threats to the United States in the near term, global climate factors, such as rising sea surface temperatures, have increased its likelihood of intensity, underscoring the need for resilient infrastructure on vulnerable islands.
NHC updates are expected hourly throughout the morning, with the next full warning at 11:00 a.m. EDT. Residents are advised to follow local authorities’ recommendations and avoid travel to affected areas.
