Special for codigopostalrd-net followers
At 2:00 a.m. EDT on October 23, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa was located at 14.5°N 74.7°W, approximately 450 km (280 mi) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 520 km (325 mi) south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 in).
It is moving westward at a very slow speed of 4 km/h (2 mph), virtually crawling over the central Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 185 km (115 mi) from the center. The storm remains sheared, with its low-level center displaced west-northwest of the main storm activity, and deep convection with cloud tops as low as -80°C.
Melissa’s slow motion is expected to continue today, with a gradual turn toward the northwest or north-northwest over the next 24 to 48 hours.
This slow pace, due to weak steering currents between two high-pressure systems, will keep the storm meandering in the central Caribbean, bringing it closer to Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
A westward turn is anticipated for the weekend as a weak ridge forms to the north. There is greater than normal uncertainty in track forecasts due to model scatter, but the consensus remains for the storm to remain in the Caribbean at least through early next week, with no near-term threat to the continental United States.
For a structured view of the forecast positions and winds (from NHC Discussion #7):
El lento avance de Melissa está intensificando los riesgos hoy, principalmente por las fuertes lluvias y los peligros asociados en el norte del Caribe.
Si bien no se espera una intensificación significativa de los vientos de inmediato (debido a la cizalladura del oeste de 20 a 25 nudos), la proximidad de la tormenta provocará efectos cada vez mayores a partir de hoy.
Fuertes lluvias ya están afectando zonas al sur de Haití y República Dominicana, con precipitaciones de entre 12,7 y 25 cm (hasta 45 cm localmente en Haití) en el sur de República Dominicana, el sur de Haití y el este de Jamaica hasta el sábado.
Hoy, esto podría provocar inundaciones repentinas potencialmente mortales, inundaciones urbanas y numerosos deslizamientos de tierra, especialmente en terrenos escarpados.
Haití y Jamaica enfrentan el mayor riesgo, con potencial de inundaciones catastróficas si la tormenta se estanca.
El norte de República Dominicana, el norte de Haití, Puerto Rico y el oeste de Jamaica podrían registrar entre 5 y 10 cm de lluvia.
Estas lluvias representan una amenaza “extrema” para la vida y la propiedad, comparable a desastres históricos como el huracán Flora (1963) y las inundaciones de 2004.
Las condiciones de tormenta tropical (vientos de 63 a 117 km/h) podrían comenzar en Jamaica esta misma noche, con ráfagas de hasta 128 a 160 km/h en el este de Jamaica a partir de hoy o el jueves.
Haití podría experimentar ráfagas de 64 a 96 km/h. Los vientos fuertes y prolongados (que podrían durar un día o más) son una preocupación creciente debido a su lenta trayectoria.
Melissa’s storm surge will affect Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba today and beyond, increasing the risk of rip currents and coastal erosion. The islands are taking shelter, with reports of heavy rain already affecting Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Active Alerts (as of Advisory 7A):
Southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince (hurricane conditions possible beginning Friday).
Tropical Storm Watch: Jamaica (conditions possible tonight or Friday).
Those interested in the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and other parts of Haiti should stay tuned for updates.
Tropical Storm Melissa’s slow and winding path today sets the stage for what could become the most impactful storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season in the Caribbean.
The primary threats for October 23 are intensifying heavy rainfall that will trigger flash flooding and mudslides in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.
Life-threatening conditions are expected to persist through the weekend due to its slow movement. Slow strengthening is forecast today, but decreasing wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures (around 30°C/86°F), and high ocean heat content could lead to rapid intensification by the weekend, potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) early next week.
Preparations to protect lives and property in affected areas should be urgently completed, as impacts could worsen if the track changes.
The storm is the thirteenth named system of the season and highlights the vulnerability of the Caribbean islands to late-season events. No direct threat to the continental United States is expected over the next week.
