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At 3:36 p.m. on October 22, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa was located in the Caribbean Sea at approximately 14.2° N, 74.0° W, with sustained winds of 80 km/h (50 mph) and moving westward at 19 km/h (12 mph).
The storm formed earlier this week and is expected to slow, possibly stalling or drifting, which could prolong its effects.
Forecasts indicate it could strengthen into a hurricane by Friday and possibly reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) by the weekend, driven by the warm waters of the Caribbean.
La Guajira, Colombia: Tropical Storm Melissa caused severe flooding in more than ten neighbourhoods of Maicao, leaving homes and businesses underwater. Dozens of families were affected, and several areas left without electricity.
A hurricane watch is in effect for southern Haiti, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince, and a tropical storm watch covers Jamaica.
Melissa has moved slowly through the eastern Caribbean, bringing heavy rains, strong winds, and rough waves to the affected islands.
The storm poses a serious flooding threat throughout the region, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides in vulnerable areas.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected through Saturday in parts of eastern Jamaica, southern Haiti, and the southern Dominican Republic, with the possibility of heavier rainfall in some locations.
This has already caused disruptions, including possible flight delays at airports such as those in Jamaica (MBJ, KIN) and the Dominican Republic (SDQ, PUJ). Caribbean countries, such as Cuba and the Cayman Islands, are advised to closely monitor the situation due to uncertainty about its long-term track.
In Haiti and the Dominican Republic (which share the island of Hispaniola), Melissa has brought heavy rainfall today, with significant accumulations already reported in the southern regions.
The risk of flooding is elevated, especially in deforested areas of Haiti, where landslides are more likely.
Between 10 and 25 inches of rain could fall over the weekend in some locations, triggering flash flooding and landslides.
Strong waves and surges have been observed along the coasts, exacerbating erosion and posing a danger to coastal communities.
No confirmed deaths or major structural damage have been reported so far, but the slow movement increases the risk of prolonged heavy rains.
The primary threats are life-threatening flash floods and landslides, especially in mountainous areas, which could disrupt transportation, damage infrastructure, and affect agriculture. In Haiti, deforestation increases the risk of landslides, potentially leading to humanitarian issues.
Heavy rainfall could cause flight disruptions, business closures, and overwhelm emergency services. Vulnerable communities in Port Royal and other low-lying areas are under evacuation alert. More than 800 shelters have been inspected in Jamaica, and similar preparations are likely underway in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
If Melissa stalls or moves westward, it could intensify further, causing catastrophic impacts in Jamaica, Cuba, or the Bahamas, including stronger winds and more intense storm surges.
At 3:36 p.m. on October 22, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa’s impacts are primarily manifested in the form of persistent heavy rains and flooding in southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with no widespread devastation reported yet.
However, the possibility of the storm stalling and strengthening poses a high risk of intensifying consequences in the coming days.
Residents are advised to heed warnings, prepare for evacuations, and monitor updates from official sources such as the National Hurricane Center.
The uncertainty surrounding the track after Thursday means continued vigilance is essential in the Greater Antilles. Over the long term, this event underscores the region’s vulnerability to late-season tropical systems amid warm ocean temperatures.
