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On October 8 and 9, 2025, Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza, negotiated through indirect negotiations in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, with mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey.
The agreement, announced by Trump at Truth Social and confirmed by both sides, marks a potential breakthrough after two years of war that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.
It includes an immediate ceasefire, the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops, an exchange of hostages and prisoners, and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza.
The Israeli security cabinet approved it on October 9, and its implementation will begin within 24 hours. Hamas hailed the agreement as a result of Palestinian steadfastness, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed it as a “national and moral victory.”
However, thornier issues, such as the disarmament of Hamas and the long-term governance of Gaza, remain unresolved for later phases.
The agreement focuses on de-escalation and humanitarian relief, with the following core elements:
The agreement builds on previous truces (e.g., November 2023 and January 2025) but incorporates the Trump framework, which provides for the demilitarization and internationalization of Gaza.
Impacts
The agreement has already transformed the immediate dynamics of the conflict, with widespread celebrations in Tel Aviv, Khan Younis, and Gaza City demonstrating public relief following the more than 67,000 Palestinian and 1,200 Israeli deaths. Key impacts include:
The ceasefire halts active bombing, allowing aid to address famine conditions and collapsing infrastructure in Gaza.
UN reports highlight the potential for more than 500 trucks to arrive daily, easing a blockade that exacerbated disease outbreaks (e.g., polio).
The celebrations in the streets of Gaza, with flag-waving crowds, reflect a “moment of profound relief,” as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer noted.
The regional de-escalation eases broader tensions, including Iran’s proxy conflicts in Yemen (Houthis) and Lebanon (Hezbollah), by freezing Israeli operations.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have stepped up mediation, which could pave the way for Arab-Israeli normalization under Trump’s revival of the Abraham Accords.
In Israel, hostage families are expressing “excitement and apprehension,” and protests are demanding swift implementation. Netanyahu faces coalition pressure from far-right allies wary of concessions, but public support for ending the war is high.
In Gaza, Hamas is gaining legitimacy as a negotiator, with officials like Abdul Rahman Shadid hailing the situation as a “defeat of the invaders” through resistance.
Trump’s role reinforces his image as a “negotiator,” and Netanyahu nominates him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Markets reacted positively, with oil prices falling and cryptocurrencies rising due to the reduction in geopolitical risk.
However, the isolated Israeli attacks following the announcement (which killed around 10 Palestinians) highlight the fragility of trust.
While the first phase offers short-term benefits, it carries risks of fragility and long-term challenges, building on the patterns of previous truces that failed after 10 days and six weeks.
An immediate pause could prevent thousands more deaths; Trump promised a step-by-step reconstruction with Arab funding (more than $2.5 trillion pledged), allowing Gaza’s transition from war to recovery.
Israel secures hostages and a buffer zone, weakening Hamas militarily (many experienced fighters are killed). Hamas secures the flow of aid and the release of prisoners, preserving its role amid despair.
Trump’s assurances and Cairo’s oversight ensure accountability, and experts like HA Hellyer stress the importance of pressuring Israel to comply. This could facilitate the Palestinian Authority’s participation in Phase II governance.
Hamas demands US guarantees against further attacks; Violations (e.g., aid delays or attacks) could derail the agreement, as seen in March 2025, when Israel suspended aid. Netanyahu’s insistence on demilitarization could stall Phase 2.
Partial withdrawal leaves governance uncertain; without Hamas’s disarmament, Israel could resort to incursions, complicating aid and reconstruction. Critics warn of “Hamas survival,” which would allow regrouping.
If successful, it would marginalize Iran, but risks empowering rivals like the Palestinian Authority if Hamas is sidelined. Domestically, Netanyahu’s image (presented as a “victory”) could prolong his rule, while Hamas faces a domestic backlash for the concessions.
Approximately 2 million Gazans remain displaced; Unaddressed issues, such as returns to the north and refugee rights, could fuel resentment.
Analysts like Boaz Atzili note that the Cairo mechanism has quickly resolved past violations, but trust remains low.
The Phase 1 agreement is a pragmatic, if imperfect, step toward ending a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and destabilized the Middle East, prioritizing hostage returns and aid over an elusive permanence.
It supports claims of diplomatic progress under the Trump administration, in contrast to the stalled efforts of the Biden era, and highlights the role of the resistance in forcing concessions without outright capitulation.
However, as a “temporary cessation” rather than a surrender, it risks repeating history: Hamas weakened but intact, Israel secure but vigilant, and Gaza civilians bearing the burden of unresolved governance.
Success depends on Phase 2 negotiations (demilitarization, international forces, and integration of the Palestinian Authority) under pressure from the guarantors.
If fully implemented, it could foster a “solid and lasting peace,” as Trump envisions; Failure would validate critics, who see it as a “postponed confrontation.”
Ultimately, a lasting resolution requires addressing root causes, such as occupation and statehood, beyond a single phase. World leaders, from Starmer to Fidan, urge compromise, echoing a shared hope: this respite becomes redemption.
