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Today, December 14, 2025, the second round of the presidential elections is being held in Chile, where the left-wing, government-backed candidate Jeannette Jara (of the Communist Party and supported by the government of Gabriel Boric) is vying for the presidency against the far-right candidate José Antonio Kast (of the Republican Party).
This election will determine Boric’s successor for the 2026-2030 term. The first round, on November 16, did not produce a winner with more than 50% of the valid votes: Jara obtained around 26%, while Kast surpassed 40%, garnering support from the traditional right and libertarians.
The election day began at 8:00 AM in mainland Chile, with polling stations open until 6:00 PM. The first preliminary results are expected between 7:00 and 7:30 PM, once the first polling stations have been counted.
So far (around 2:00 PM in Chile), only preliminary data is available from overseas votes (approximately 50,000-100,000 registered voters), representing less than 1% of the total electorate. These results show Jara with a lead in several countries, although with some variations.
Recent Polls and Projections
Pre-election polls (conducted between November 18 and November 28, 2025) consistently show Kast as the favorite, with a lead of 10-22 points.
High voter turnout is expected (around 85%, due to mandatory voting), which could benefit the ruling party, but discontent with the Boric administration (approval rating ~30%) limits Jara’s potential. Here is a summary of the last 8 polls for the second round:
Source: Aggregated polls. Predictive models, such as that of the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) at Andrés Bello University, project a similar scenario, with Kast winning by a wide margin, although with uncertainty due to possible flows of undecided (~10-15%) and null votes.
Immediate Impact of the Election
The election takes place in a context of high polarization, with Chile facing structural challenges: a stagnant economy (projected growth of 2% for 2026, with controlled inflation but unemployment around 8%), a perceived increase in insecurity (87% of the population considers it worse, despite a decrease in homicides), and a migration crisis (330,000 irregular migrants, mostly Venezuelans).
Both candidates agree on prioritizing security and immigration, focusing the debate on these issues over ideological proposals.
The electoral process has exacerbated divisions: the ruling left is suffering from the fallout from Boric’s failures in constitutional processes and plebiscites, while the right is rapidly unifying after the first round.
Social and political impact: High potential abstention among disillusioned progressive sectors, and mobilization of the anti-establishment right. Null or blank votes could exceed 10%, reflecting electoral fatigue.
Economic impact: Volatile markets; a Kast victory could boost investor confidence (due to its emphasis on free markets), but also generate fears of social spending cuts. Jara promises continuity in pensions and minimum wages.
The consequences will depend on the winner, but both scenarios imply a pragmatic shift after the election, as in previous transitions of power (e.g., Piñera after Bachelet). The right controls approximately 50% of Congress (76 out of 155 deputies, half in the Senate), facilitating reforms with minimal consensus.
If Jara (government left) wins: Continuity of the Borista model, with greater state intervention in health, education, and labor (e.g., pending pension reform). He would strengthen egalitarian policies but face a hostile Congress and low popular support, limiting governability. A possible emphasis on consensus for security, adopting tougher stances on immigration to win over the center. Risk: Increased polarization if the government’s popularity declines.
If Kast (far right) wins: Shift towards “tough on crime” policies: mass expulsion of migrants (within 92 days), a state of emergency for security (border controls with Peru), and economic deregulation. He would moderate extremes (without drastic social cuts), similar to leaders like Giorgia Meloni. Benefits: Increased foreign investment and control of public order. Risks: Tensions with neighboring countries over immigration and social protests if he is perceived as authoritarian.
In both cases, pragmatism is expected: viable constitutional reforms with 4/7 of Congress, and a shared focus on reactivating the economy (growth via exports) and environmental sustainability (Jara’s proposals are greener than Kast’s).
Chile finds itself at a crossroads between a weakened progressive continuity and a conservative shift, but with a shared agenda on security, immigration, and the economy that transcends ideologies.
Kast starts as the favorite, but the election could surprise with influxes of votes from undecided voters or high turnout from government supporters.
Regardless of the outcome, the next government will inherit a polarized country with high expectations regarding public order; its success will depend on its ability to foster dialogue in a fragmented Congress.
This election marks the end of the Boric era and the beginning of a stabilization phase, with lessons from 2021: extreme promises tend to be moderated in practice.
