As of November 23, 2025, the climate situation in Mexico reflects a late autumn transitional pattern, with the end of hurricane season giving way to cooler and drier conditions influenced by polar air masses.
The country is experiencing a combination of mild daytime temperatures in the coastal and southern regions, contrasting with cold nights and early mornings in the central highlands and the north.
Multiple cold fronts have affected the country this month, including the recent Cold Front 15, which is moving eastward, bringing persistently cool temperatures, gusty winds, and scattered showers, mainly in the southeast.
Overall, November has been cooler and drier than the summer monsoon season, with average daytime highs between 23 and 30 °C (73 and 86 °F) in Mexico City and coastal areas, dropping to between 6 and 15 °C (43 and 59 °F) at night, and between 6 and 8 hours of sunshine per day.
No major disasters such as hurricanes or widespread flooding are reported today, but the weather remains unstable due to the continued weakening of El Niño, which has contributed to erratic weather patterns.
Drought persists in the northern and central regions, exacerbating water stress, while residual tropical moisture in the southeast is producing isolated showers. Impacts of the Current Climate Situation
The immediate weather forecast for November 23 is stable, but varies regionally, and widespread climate change amplifies vulnerabilities:
Extreme Temperatures and Health Risks: Daytime temperatures are around 20-30 °C (68-86 °F) in the highlands and the north, with a pleasant feel, but nighttime temperatures drop to 1-10 °C (34-50 °F) in areas such as Mexico City, the Bajío region, and the Valley of Mexico, with the possibility of frost in higher elevations (-9 °C or lower in open areas).
This cold wave from recent fronts has generated a risk of hypothermia for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, children, and the homeless. In contrast, in the northwest (for example, Sonora and Baja California), maximum temperatures exceed 35 °C (95 °F), testing urban resilience to heat.
Overall, the variable cold in November has increased respiratory illnesses, with public health alerts in more than 20 states. Water and agriculture: Northern Mexico, including Chihuahua and Coahuila, is facing a severe drought (the historical percentile for November precipitation is 58%, above the 2010-2024 average, but still insufficient for recovery). This has reduced reservoir levels to 28-32% of the projected April-May 2026 levels without intervention, impacting irrigation for crops such as corn and livestock.
The New World screwworm outbreak in Mexico, exacerbated by dry conditions, has halted livestock imports and contributed to disruptions in the U.S. supply chain. In the southeast (Yucatán, Quintana Roo), scattered rains (up to 50-70 mm due to isolated storms) provide slight relief, but carry the risk of localized flooding in low-lying areas.
Energy and infrastructure strain: Cold nights have boosted residential heating demand, pushing the national grid almost to its limit (with 7,800 MW of firm thermal backup available).
Pemex’s heavy budget allocation has slowed the transition to renewable energy, leaving the system vulnerable to peak demand. Winds of 20 to 50 km/h (up to 70 km/h in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) could disrupt coastal shipping and power lines today.
Environment and biodiversity: Monarch butterfly migrations to Michoacán are underway, benefiting from the milder November conditions (averages of 14 to 27 °C), but the risk of frost threatens overwintering areas.
Coastal tourism in Quintana Roo and Veracruz suffers slight impacts from the rains, but obsolete infrastructure (for example, ports) remains at risk from residual swells from the hurricane season.
Consequences of the Current Climate Situation
These short-term climate patterns are symptoms of the deeper effects of climate change, with cascading consequences:
Economic Crime: Agricultural losses from drought could exceed one billion dollars annually, with livestock shortages (historic lows due to droughts and pests) impacting food prices and exports.
Tourism, a 25 billion dollar sector, faces disruptions from unpredictable rainfall, while power outages threaten to paralyze industrial activity in the water-scarce north (e.g., Monterrey).
The 2025 East Coast Climate Performance Index (CCPI) ranks Mexico 39th globally in climate performance, due to low adoption of renewable energy and dependence on fossil fuels, which inflates import costs amid global volatility.
Social and health burdens: More than 10 million people in rural areas of the north face water rationing, increasing migration pressure toward cities like Mexico City (which is already sinking between 10 and 50 cm per year due to aquifer depletion).
Cold fronts have caused more than 50 deaths from hypothermia this month alone, disproportionately affecting indigenous and low-income communities. In urban areas, air quality is worsening due to the stagnation of cold air that traps pollutants, which is linked to a 15% increase in respiratory illnesses.
Environmental degradation: Deforestation for drought-resistant agriculture is accelerating biodiversity loss, with 20% of forests at risk. While beneficial, the rains in the southeast increase erosion in deforested areas, threatening cenotes and reefs vital to ecosystems.
The more widespread persistence of El Niño (70% probability of a moderate phase until February 2026) is predicted to intensify periods of drought, which could trigger wildfires in the Sierra Madre.
Geopolitical repercussions: Water disputes on the US border (e.g., the Rio Grande) are intensifying, while Mexico’s commitments to NDC 3.0 are straining budgets amid Pemex subsidies, limiting adaptation funds.
Mexico’s climate on November 23, 2025, highlights that the nation is at a turning point: the immediate climate is manageable thanks to cold and wind alerts, but deep-seated problems such as drought and energy fragility indicate an escalation of climate risks.
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent NDC 3.0 (presented on November 11) is a bold step, aiming to reduce emissions by 50% by 2035 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 through renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and water management, potentially freeing up $550 million in efficiency investments. However, implementation is being delayed due to stalled policies and priorities regarding fossil fuels, as noted in the CCPI 2025.
To mitigate: Prioritize just transitions for workers in the renewable energy sector (aiming for 35% clean energy by 2024), expand rainwater harvesting in the north, and enforce laws against deforestation.
International support through the NDC Alliance could mobilize funds for resilient infrastructure. Without urgent action, projections show losses of 20% to 30% of GDP due to climate events by 2050. Optimistically, Sheinbaum’s scientific background offers hope for equitable, science-based policies that transform vulnerability into opportunities for green jobs and biodiversity conservation. Follow the National Meteorological Service (SMN) for local weather advisories today.
