On the eve of November 16, 2025, Chile finds itself at a crucial moment with its general elections, in which the next president, all 155 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and 23 of the 50 seats in the Senate will be elected.
The outgoing president, Gabriel Boric, whose popularity hovers between 28% and 40%, cannot run for reelection due to constitutional limitations.
These elections mark the return of mandatory voting to the national ballot since 2012—with fines of approximately 33,000 Chilean pesos (about US$35) for those who do not vote—which could boost voter turnout from 47% in the first round of 2021 to over 80% among the 15.8 million registered voters.
A runoff election on December 14 is almost certain, as no candidate is approaching the 50% needed to win in the first round.
The elections reflect profound social changes since the outbreak of the 2019 crisis: from demands for progressive reforms to growing frustration with economic stagnation (GDP growth of around 2%), high unemployment (between 8% and 9%), and rising crime (with increases of 50% to 100% in some regions since 2015).
Immigration, especially from Venezuela, has become a flashpoint, with 48% of Chileans believing the country is on the “wrong track.”
Main candidates and polling landscape
Eight candidates are on the ballot, but four are leading in the polls (last published on November 1 due to a 15-day media blackout). The unity of the left around Jeannette Jara contrasts with the fragmentation of the right, which could divide the vote but consolidate it in a second round.
Other candidates (for example, Franco Parisi and independents) poll below 5%. Prediction platforms like Polymarket give Kast a 71% chance of winning in the first round, Jara 15%, but a lower percentage in the second; Wahlfieber shows Jara with 29.5%, Kast with 22%, and Kaiser with 17.5%.
Main issues influencing public opinion
Voters’ priorities have shifted since 2021, when they focused on inequality and constitutional reform (rejected twice). Current top concerns, according to Reuters and AS/COA polls:
Security and crime: between 60% and 70% consider it the main concern; the homicide rate has doubled since 2017, linked to organized gangs.
Immigration: more than 40% perceive it negatively; The arrival of approximately 1.5 million Venezuelans is putting pressure on resources.
Economy: Stagnant growth, 66% of households in debt, inflation eroding wages; the mining sector is pushing for faster permits. Social equity: A latent issue since 2019, but overshadowed; Boric’s reforms (for example, the increase in pensions) have stalled amidst political paralysis.
Debates on social media (for example, from @Informa3Chile and @ElRadardeCesar) highlight the internal struggles of the right and the weariness of the left, while weather forecasts and election guides become trending topics in the lead-up to the elections.
Impact of the Elections
These polls will immediately define Chile’s trajectory:
Political Polarization: A victory for Jara consolidates Boric’s agenda, but carries the risk of political gridlock given a likely right-wing Congress (all deputies re-elected, half of the Senate). A right-wing victory signals a rejection of the left, similar to regional trends in Argentina and Bolivia.
Economic Signals: Markets have already priced in a rightward shift: Chilean spreads are at historic lows and stocks have risen year-to-date (e.g., $ECH, $BCH). A Kast/Kaiser victory could boost investor confidence through deregulation, but could also trigger volatility if perceived as unstable. Jara’s wage increases could fuel short-term inflation.
Social Cohesion: Mandatory voting mobilizes apathetic or marginalized groups (often left-leaning), but the fragmentation of the right could exacerbate extremism. The anti-right sentiment reflects a crisis in right-wing alliances, which could lead to post-election realignments.
Regional impact: The result in Chile influences the decline of the “pink tide” in Latin America; a right-wing victory strengthens populism in the style of Milei/Trump.
Potential Consequences
Short Term (after November 16):
Dynamics of the Runoff: Jara will likely win in the first round thanks to unity, but the consolidation of the right favors Kast (polls show he would beat her with 55-45% in the runoff). Fragmentation could allow Matthei to slip through, moderating the contest.
Change in Congress: Right-wing gains could block reforms, forcing concessions on security bills.
Market Volatility: Bloomberg points to upside potential in stocks if the right wins, but short-term sell-offs are possible due to the uncertainty of the runoff.
Long Term:
Political Reforms: A right-wing government implies stricter borders, military operations against crime, and tax cuts for businesses, which could stabilize growth but exacerbate inequality. The continuity of the left translates into social investments, with the risk of fiscal strain.
Democratic Health: High turnout tests the effectiveness of mandatory voting; low compliance could erode trust. Unresolved demands from 2019 persist (e.g., pensions, education), according to Clarín’s analysis.
Geopolitical Ties: Jara seeks “appropriate” relations with Trump/Milei; Kast aligns himself more with US conservatives.
Publications in X underscore unpredictability: analysts like @guillermoholz warn that polls failed at the regional level, adding an unpredictable factor to the undecided voters (between 20 and 30%).
Conclusions and Perspectives
The 2025 Chilean elections reflect a nation grappling with post-uprising disillusionment: the progressive promise of 2021 has given way to demands for order amid economic hardship. A shift to the right—likely through Kast—offers stability, but risks deepening divisions on migration and human rights. Jara’s lead masks Boric’s problems, which could condemn the left in a polarized runoff.
Ultimately, tomorrow’s vote won’t resolve the outstanding issues of 2019, such as inequality, but it will redefine Chile’s course: toward Milei-style libertarianism or moderate socialism. With optimistic markets and high turnout, a revitalized democracy is expected, but one tested by fragmentation.
The winner, who will take office on March 11, 2026, will inherit a resilient economy (driven by copper) but with a fragile social fabric. As @ASCOA points out, this could mark a sharp shift to the right, influencing the ideological landscape of Latin America.
