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The North Indian Ocean cyclone season runs roughly from April to December, peaking between May and November.
Activity is split between the Bay of Bengal (most active after the monsoon, between October and December) and the Arabian Sea. This year has been active, with 12 depressions, 5 deep depressions, 2 cyclonic storms, and 2 severe cyclonic storms (Shakhti and Montha).
The total death toll stands at 177 (mainly from earlier systems such as BOB 01 and BOB 07), with widespread flooding, landslides, and crop losses in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bhutan. Quantified damage data in US dollars is not yet available, but significant impacts on agriculture and infrastructure have been reported.
Focus: Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha (Current/Recent Featured Cyclone of the “Cyclone Months”)
Formation and Track: Formed on October 25 east of the Andaman Islands (Bay of Bengal). It rapidly intensified, crossing the Andamans and brushing the east coast of Sri Lanka.
It moved north-northwest towards Andhra Pradesh (AP). Landfall: Late on October 28 near the port of Kakinada (central AP coast) as a severe cyclonic storm with winds of 90 to 110 km/h and a pressure of 988 hPa.
It weakened to a deep depression over the AP coast and subsequently to a low-pressure system over southern Chhattisgarh/Vidarbha (latitude 19.6°N, longitude 80.7°E) on the afternoon of October 29. It is moving north at about 17 km/h; it is expected to become a well-defined low-pressure area by the morning of October 30, dissipating inland over Chhattisgarh/M
Odisha escaped major damage due to timely evacuations/preparedness (lessons from 1999 Super Cyclone).
Other Active Systems (Oct 30 Outlook):
Arabian Sea Depression (eastcentral, lat 17.9°N/long 69°E): Stationary → NW track; may intensify to deep depression. Heavy rain likely Gujarat/Maharashtra (Saurashtra, Konkan) till Oct 31; squalls 40–60 km/h coasts.
No new formations imminent; post-monsoon season ongoing (high risk Oct–Dec Bay of Bengal).
Conclusions & Trajectories Forward:
Montha: Rapid weakening; heavy/very heavy rain lingers Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, East MP, Odisha till Oct 31; squalls WB coasts (35–55 km/h). Relief focuses crop aid, flood clearance—minimal long-term disruption vs. 2023’s deadly season (523 deaths, $2.5B damage).
Season Trajectory: Above-average activity; climate change intensifies storms (warmer seas). India’s robust systems (IMD warnings, evacuations) saved lives—e.g., OD’s model post-1999.
Oct 30 Advice: Monitor IMD; avoid low areas; Gujarat/AP/TS/CG red alerts for rain/floods. Full recovery in weeks; ex-gratia, crop insurance payouts expected.
