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At 12:49 p.m. on Monday, October 27, 2025 (Jamaica time, UTC-5), Hurricane Melissa intensified into a rare Category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 257 km/h (160 mph) and a central pressure of around 917 mb.
The storm’s center is located approximately 210-220 km (130-135 mi) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving slowly westward at a speed of 5-8 km/h (3-5 mph).
This slowness, compounded by its location in the warm waters of the Caribbean, amplifies its destructive potential by prolonging exposure to heavy rains and winds.
Melissa is the third Category 5 storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season (after Erin and Humberto) and the most recent such storm in a single season since Hurricane Mitch in 1998.
Currently, tropical-storm-force winds (63-117 km/h) and heavy rains are already lashing southern Jamaica, with gusts up to 96-112 km/h in coastal areas such as Kingston and Port Royal.
Power outages are beginning in low-lying areas, and Kingston streets are virtually deserted as mandatory evacuations continue.
The eye of the storm is visible in satellite imagery, showing intense electrical activity, indicating that further strengthening is possible before landfall. Impacts in Jamaica (As of 12:49 p.m.)
Jamaica is experiencing the first outer bands of Melissa, with conditions worsening hourly:
Tropical storm-force winds are sweeping across southern parishes (e.g., St. Catherine, Clarendon, and St. Elizabeth), causing downed trees and power lines and minor damage to the roofs of homes with zinc sheets.
Coastal erosion is evident, with waves between 3 and 4.5 meters high breaking at Hellshire Beach and Port Royal. No widespread structural collapses have yet been reported, but authorities are reporting isolated flooding in vulnerable communities.
Between 5 and 10 cm of rain has fallen since dawn, causing flash flooding in ravines and lowlands in Kingston.
In rural areas such as Treasure Beach in St. Elizabeth, water levels are rapidly rising, threatening wooden homes and farms.
Lightning strikes have started small fires in grassy areas. Human and economic cost: At least 2,000 people are in shelters, and evacuations are underway for more than 50,000 in coastal areas.
Airports (including Norman Manley International Airport) closed at midday, leaving tourists stranded. Early economic impacts include disruption to fishing and agriculture, with banana and coffee crops already severely damaged. No deaths have yet been confirmed in Jamaica, but six deaths were previously reported in the northern Caribbean due to the storm surges.
Live reports from Kingston describe a tense calm: boarded-up shops, empty markets, and residents hunkered down, with social media images of swaying palm trees and flooded roads.
Melissa is forecast to make direct landfall on Jamaica’s southern coast (likely near Black River or Savanna-la-Mar) early Tuesday morning (around 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. local time), maintaining a Category 5 status. This would be the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica since records began in 1851, surpassing Hurricane Gilbert (Category 3 when it made landfall in 1988, causing over 40 deaths and $4 billion in damage). Its slow progress means impacts could linger for 48 to 72 hours.
Secondary risks include disease outbreaks from contaminated water and supply chain disruptions. Neighboring areas such as southern Haiti (40 cm of rain) and southeastern Cuba (Category 3, which made landfall Tuesday night) face similar threats, but Jamaica is the hardest hit.
Hurricane Melissa represents a worst-case scenario for Jamaica, exacerbated by climate change: rising ocean temperatures drive rapid intensification, and the island’s hilly terrain (prone to landslides) increases vulnerability.
Authorities, including Prime Minister Andrew Holness, emphasize the resilience of post-Hurricane Gilbert improvements (e.g., reinforced power grids), but experts warn of unimaginable devastation, potentially rivaling the 2010 Haiti earthquake in terms of humanitarian needs.
After landfall, Jamaica is likely to declare a disaster area under the Disaster Risk Management Act, mobilizing international aid (e.g., from USAID and the Red Cross).
Recovery could take months, prioritizing reconstruction in flood-prone areas and climate adaptation. For now, the priority is survival: “Prepare for the worst, pray for the best,” urged one official.
Global solidarity is crucial; donations through the Convoy of Hope or Jamaica’s ODPEM are already arriving. Melissa’s path does not affect the continental United States, but it underscores the ferocity of the 2025 season (13 named storms so far). As it moves northeast past Jamaica, monitoring continues for Cuba and the Bahamas. Take care, Jamaica; your strength endures.
