Special for codigopostalrd.net Followers
Hurricane Melissa, an exceptionally powerful Category 5 storm, intensified dramatically over the weekend and posed a critical threat to Jamaica beginning at 12:16 a.m. on Monday, October 27, 2025.
At that time, the storm’s center was located approximately 210-240 km (130-150 mi) south-southwest of Kingston, with sustained winds of 257 km/h (160 mph) and a minimum central pressure of around 913-917 mb.
Moving slowly northwestward at only 5-8 km/h (3-5 mph), its outer rainbands had begun to lash southern Jamaica, bringing initial tropical-storm-force winds (63-117 mph) and heavy, torrential rains to coastal areas.
This slowness amplified the danger, allowing for prolonged exposure to extreme weather. Melissa marked only the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season—the most in a single year since 2005—and the most recent such storm on record since Hurricane Mitch in 1998.
At this early morning, impacts were still incipient but already severe in the southern and eastern parishes, with the storm’s expansive structure (hurricane-force winds extending 40-50 miles from the center) beginning to interact with the island. Key effects included:
Initial winds and structural damage: Gusts of up to 80-100 mph (128-160 km/h) were reported in low-lying coastal areas such as Port Royal and parts of St. Andrew Parish near Kingston, downing tree limbs and power lines and causing minor roof damage to weaker structures.
Widespread catastrophic wind damage had not yet occurred, but the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated that hurricane-force winds would rapidly intensify by daybreak, potentially reaching 140 to 160 mph (225 to 257 km/h) in the eyewall.
Early Rainfall and Flooding: Between 4 and 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) accumulated in isolated locations since the afternoon, triggering localized flash flooding in urban watersheds around Kingston and Montego Bay. Rivers such as the Copper River were swollen, with initial reports of road flooding in St. Catherine Parish.
Satellite imagery showed feeder bands discharging between 1 and 2 inches (2.5 to 5 cm) per hour, exacerbating vulnerability in mountainous terrain prone to runoff.
Storm Surge and Coastal Threats: Tide gauges in Kingston Harbour recorded storm surges between 60 and 120 cm above normal, with large waves (3 to 4.5 meters) lashing seawalls and eroding beaches in Port Antonio and Negril.
No major leaks have yet occurred, but low-lying communities like Hellshire were being evacuated and experienced minor saltwater intrusion.
Human and Infrastructure Pressure: All major airports (including Norman Manley International Airport) closed, stranding thousands of people.
Power was disrupted across southern grids, with JPSCo reporting outages for approximately 5,000 customers. Shelters housed more than 10,000 evacuees, according to government counts, amid mandatory orders for coastal areas issued Sunday night. Social media posts from Kingston residents described an “eerie calm” that gave way to “howling winds” and “streets that turned into rivers.”
No confirmed fatalities were reported at the time, but emergency services were on high alert for a rapid escalation.
The combination of extreme intensity, slow movement, and Jamaica’s topography (steep mountains that channel floodwaters) promised unprecedented devastation.
Meteorologists described it as potentially “catastrophic” and “historic,” surpassing Hurricane Gilbert (1988, Category 3 at landfall), the last major direct hit on the island. Projected short- and medium-term consequences include:
Flooding and landslides: The leading cause of death, with between 38 and 76 cm of rain expected across the island by Tuesday night (up to 101 cm in eastern parishes such as Portland and St. Thomas).
This could swell rivers, trigger hundreds of landslides in the Blue Mountains, and flood urban areas such as Kingston (up to 3 to 4.5 meters of water in flood-prone gullies).
Consequences: Displacement of more than 100,000 residents, destruction of bridges and roads (e.g., along the A3 highway), and agricultural losses exceeding $500 million in banana and coffee crops.
Wind Damage: Wind gusts of over 257 km/h capable of tearing off roofs, snapping utility poles, and demolishing mobile homes or precarious structures. Power outages of 70–90% are expected nationwide, lasting weeks in rural areas, and blackouts that will isolate communities.
Storm Surge: 2.7 to 4 meters along the southern coast (highest east of the landfall area), flooding homes up to 1.6 km inland and contaminating water supplies with sewage. Kingston’s ports could suffer $200–300 million in damage to maritime infrastructure.
Human costs: Fatal risks for more than 200,000 people in vulnerable areas. Potential for dozens to hundreds of deaths from drowning or landslides, according to AccuWeather’s Actual Impact Scale (rating 5/5). Economic impact: $10-20 billion, crippling tourism (hotels closed) and an economy dependent on remittances. Vulnerable groups—elderly people, informal hillside dwellers—faced the greatest risks, and early evacuations were credited with preventing immediate chaos.
Regional impact: Rainfall prior to the hurricane’s arrival had already caused five deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic (landslides and flooding); Cuba and the Bahamas were bracing for secondary impacts.
Hurricane Melissa Track
As of 12:16 a.m., Melissa’s track remained tightly clustered in forecast models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), with a tendency toward a direct southern landfall:
Immediate (12:16 a.m. – dawn Monday): Continues northwestward at 5-8 km/h (3-5 mph), with outer bands intensifying rainfall and winds over southern Jamaica. Pressure remains steady at ~913 mb; minor fluctuations are expected, but no weakening is anticipated.
Daytime Monday: Turns northeast, approaching within 80 km of Kingston by evening. Hurricane-force winds reach the entire island by late afternoon; Maximum intensity remains at Category 5.
Landfall (Monday night/early Tuesday): It will strike near Black River or Treasure Beach (St. Elizabeth Parish, west of Kingston) around 2:00-6:00 Tuesday with Category 5 winds (259-265 km/h). Its slow forward movement (8 km/h) keeps it stalled over Jamaica for 12 to 18 hours, maximizing rainfall.
After landfall: It will weaken to a Category 3 storm over eastern Cuba Tuesday night (Guantanamo/Santiago), then to a Category 2 storm over the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.
It will accelerate northeastward into the open Atlantic on Thursday, moving away from the U.S. East Coast, but could cause strong waves and rip currents through early November. Landfall in the U.S. is not expected, but indirect storm surges could reach Florida and the Carolinas.
This track, confirmed by the NHC advisory on Sunday at 11:00 p.m., placed Jamaica in the worst-case scenario, with the eyewall brushing the entire south-central coast.
Hurricane Melissa represented a turning point for Jamaica, similar to Katrina (2005) for New Orleans or Maria (2017) for Puerto Rico; potentially the most destructive storm in the island’s recorded history due to its scale and stasis.
The signs of climate change were evident: warming Caribbean waters drove rapid intensification (from Category 1 to 5 in approximately 48 hours), while slower steering currents (from a blocking high-pressure system) prolonged the onslaught.
At 12:16 a.m., the island’s resilience shone through thanks to proactive measures: 881 shelters opened, more than 20,000 troops mobilized, and pledges of international aid from the U.S., the United Kingdom, and CARICOM on the way. However, the human cost was immense.
Recovery will require global support: immediate needs include search and rescue helicopters, water purification, and temporary shelter for tens of thousands of people.
In the long term, Jamaica must accelerate the construction of resilient infrastructure (e.g., elevated roads, flood barriers) amid a hyperactive season that signals increased climate risks.
The historic courage of Jamaicans, who recovered from Gilbert, Ivan (2004), and Dean (2007), offers hope, but this storm underscores the urgent need to reduce emissions and fund adaptation. Our prayers and solidarity are with the island; as one X user posted: “Jamaica is strong; we’ve overcome worse, but this is a nightmare. Take care, family.”
