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As of 8:50 a.m. IST on Monday, October 27, 2025, India’s weather outlook reflects a post-monsoon transition phase marked by unusually active weather systems.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports two key depressions driving widespread activity: a deep depression in the southeastern Bay of Bengal, intensifying into Cyclonic Storm “Montha” (forecast to become a Severe Cyclonic Storm by early October 28), and a persistent depression in the east-central Arabian Sea.
This has resulted in scattered, heavy rainfall across the southern, western, and eastern regions, while northern areas have experienced cooler-than-normal temperatures and hazy conditions.
Overall, October 2025 recorded above-normal rainfall (a 17% deviation from long-term averages as of October 22), contributing to an erratic end to the monsoon season.
Satellite imagery shows extensive cloud cover from south to north, with heavy rain in coastal areas. Delhi, for example, recorded its coldest October morning in two years, with temperatures near 18°C, while southern cities such as Chennai and Mumbai hovered around 27–30°C with high humidity (70–80%).
Air quality in northern India remains “very poor” to “severe,” exacerbated by stagnant winds and post-harvest stubble burning.
Impacts
The immediate weather situation is amplifying broader climate vulnerabilities in India, where extreme events have increased due to global warming. Major impacts include:
Impacts on agriculture and livelihoods: Unseasonal rains have damaged standing crops in Gujarat (e.g., groundnuts in Saurashtra), Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra, with reports of flooded fields in 20 districts of Madhya Pradesh alone.
In Uttara Kannada and Dakshina Kannada, Karnataka, rainfall (between 10 and 70 mm expected today) threatens crop ripening. Nationally, erratic climate-driven monsoons and droughts have already reduced wheat production by up to 19%, according to projections for 2050, particularly affecting smallholder farmers: more than 56% of India’s workforce depends on agriculture.
Health and Human Security: Heat waves earlier this year (e.g., highs of 50°C in Delhi) caused thousands of heat-related deaths, but today’s cooler north (with lows of 11-19°C) contrasts with the humid heat of the south (up to 33°C), increasing the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever amid the flooding.
Relief efforts are underway in northern India following recent flooding, and free medical aid is being distributed to victims. Urban and Infrastructure Stress: Heavy rainfall (7 to 20 cm recorded yesterday in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat) has caused flooding in Mumbai, Chennai, and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The impending cyclone threatens power outages and transportation disruptions on the east coast. Air pollution hotspots, such as Kapurthala in Punjab (Air Quality Index >1000), are exacerbating respiratory problems, with Delhi’s Air Quality Index (AQI) at very low levels.
Ecological effects: Devtal Lake in Uttarakhand has frozen over—an unusual phenomenon in October that indicates the variability of Himalayan cooling—while the risk of coral bleaching is increasing in the Andaman Islands due to rising ocean temperatures linked to climate trends.
These short-term weather dynamics exacerbate the long-term effects of climate change. India ranks fourth globally in climate-induced migration (more than 3 million displaced in 2020-21 alone) and has suffered economic losses of $180 billion due to more than 400 extreme events (1993-2022).
Economic cost: The cyclone could cause $1 billion to $2 billion in damage to Andhra Pradesh’s coastal economy, including fisheries and agriculture.
Nationally, smallholder farmers need $136.49 billion annually to withstand yield declines (e.g., 18% to 40% for maize by 2080), pests, and water shortages. However, support available through programs such as PM-KUSUM is fragmented.
Social and Humanitarian: More than 80% of India’s population faces physical climate risks, including 27 million people potentially displaced by sea level rise by 2100. Marginalized groups (e.g., the rural poor, women in flood-prone areas) bear disproportionate burdens, and the recent flooding in Rudraprayag resulted in the recovery of seven bodies two months after the event.
Environmental Feedback Loops: Erratic rainfall (e.g., intense western disturbances causing the October Anomalies) accelerates soil erosion and biodiversity loss. Rising temperatures (0.7°C since 1901) have prolonged dry seasons in rainfed areas such as Meghalaya, exacerbating the water crisis.
India’s current climate situation highlights a precarious balance: post-monsoon heat relief is overshadowed by cyclone threats and pollution, indicating deeper systemic risks from global warming.
While aerosols and irrigation may temporarily mask warming (creating a “global warming hole” over India), experts warn of an acceleration of extremes, at a rate above the global average, in the coming decades.
Mitigation requires urgent scale-up: $136 billion annually for farmer adaptation, expansion of renewable energy (as in the 2025 Union Budget’s boost to battery storage), and resilient infrastructure, such as drought-resistant crops and mangroves.
Positive measures include IMD early warnings and community-based initiatives (e.g., BSF/CRPF training of indigenous dogs for disaster response). However, without global emissions cuts and national shifts (e.g., from coal-dependent industries), the consequences will intensify, displacing millions of people and straining food security.
Policymakers must prioritize intergenerational equity, safeguarding the Western Ghats and coastal areas as “people’s shields” against cumulative risks. For real-time updates, follow IMD alerts; residents in affected areas should prepare for evacuations and secure their essential assets. This moment demands adaptive resilience to turn vulnerability into strength.
