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On October 12, 2025, Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina issued a statement claiming that an “illegal and forceful attempt to seize power” was underway, following the defection of the elite CAPSAT military unit to join the ongoing anti-government protests.
Soldiers in Madagascar refuse order to shoot protesters.
“They are our friends, brothers and sisters.” ~ Soldiers in Madagascar publicly urge their colleagues and police to “ignore the order” to shoot protesters as thousands of Gen Z members march in the capital, demanding the president’s resignation.
The protests, which began on September 25, 2025, were initially triggered by widespread water and electricity shortages but quickly evolved into broader demands: Rajoelina’s resignation, an end to corruption, improved access to education, and the dissolution of the Senate and the electoral commission.
Protests in Madagascar escalate into a military coup.
One of the military units that joined the protests demanding the president’s resignation declared that the armed forces of the country of 25 million people are now under its command.
CAPSAT, the same unit that supported Rajoelina’s rise to power through a coup in 2009, announced that it had taken control of the armed forces and appointed General Demosthene Pikulas as the new Chief of Staff, a decision accepted by the Minister of the Armed Forces.
The situation remained unstable as of October 13, 2025, with no widespread violence reported on the day of the announcement, but high tensions in the capital, Antananarivo.
The president’s statement and the events surrounding it have had multifaceted political, social, economic, and international repercussions in Madagascar, a nation of approximately 30 million people where three-quarters live in poverty and the median age is under 20.
The mutiny has exposed deep divisions within the military and the government, representing the most serious challenge to Rajoelina’s government since his controversial reelection in 2023.
The defection of CAPSAT and its claim to military control have led to the dismissal of the Senate President (a Rajoelina ally) and the flight to Mauritius of key figures such as former Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and Rajoelina’s advisor, Mamy Ravatomanga.
This echoes Madagascar’s history of political instability, with multiple coups since its independence in 1960, and could erode trust in institutions such as the electoral commission, already targeted by protesters for its alleged bias.
The protests, led by the leaderless group “Gen Z Madagascar” and inspired by similar youth movements in Kenya, Nepal, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka, have mobilized thousands of people, fostering a sense of empowerment among young people frustrated by poverty, unemployment, and governance failures.
However, the unrest has had a significant human cost: the United Nations reports at least 22 dead and dozens injured since September 25, although the government denies this, claiming only 12 “looters and vandals” were killed.
The clashes have included gunfire near the CAPSAT barracks, which left one soldier dead and a journalist injured, raising fears of further violence and highlighting issues such as food price inflation and a lack of basic services.
As one of the poorest countries in the world, with a per capita GDP of approximately $545 and a high corruption rate (140 out of 180 on the Transparency International index), Madagascar’s economy is vulnerable to disruptions.
The protests and riots have already had immediate effects, such as the suspension of Air France flights between Paris and Antananarivo from October 11 to 13 (extended until at least October 14) and the indefinite suspension of services by Emirates due to security concerns.
This could severely impact tourism and trade, sectors that depend on stability, while also exacerbating existing tensions stemming from extreme weather conditions affecting agriculture (a key exporter of vanilla and gems).
The World Bank projected growth of 4.7% for 2025, but continued unrest could reduce global export demand and curb investment, potentially exacerbating the poverty and shortages of public services that triggered the crisis.
The events have prompted travel alerts and increased global scrutiny. The U.S. Embassy advised citizens to shelter in place amid the volatile situation, while the United Kingdom warned against non-essential travel. Nighttime curfews in major cities are increasing the sense of isolation.
The immediate consequences of Rajoelina’s statement include a precarious standoff, with the potential for escalation or resolution through dialogue.
Military and security consequences: Parts of the gendarmerie have aligned themselves with CAPSAT, prohibiting the use of force against citizens and coordinating operations from the CAPSAT base. This has created a de facto military division, as CAPSAT rejects orders to fire on protesters and escorts them to symbolic locations such as Plaza del 13 de Mayo.
A full-blown coup has not been confirmed, but the appointment of Pikulas as army chief indicates a change of command, which could lead to the arrest of loyalists or further defections if unrest persists.
Rajoelina has called for national unity and dialogue, and the new Prime Minister, Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo, has expressed his willingness to negotiate with youth, unions, and the army.
However, protesters reject partial concessions such as the dismissal of the government on September 29, considering them insufficient. If the uprising succeeds, it could force Rajoelina’s resignation. If it is suppressed, it could lead to a crackdown that further entrenches authoritarianism.
The mounting number of casualties and injuries is straining medical care, while the UN has criticized the security forces’ violent response to the largely peaceful protests. Religious leaders and opposition figures, including former President Marc Ravalomanana, have joined the demonstrations, broadening support but risking polarization.
The African Union has urged restraint on all sides, emphasizing constitutional order. South Africa and other regional powers have expressed concern, but no sanctions or interventions have been announced. The suspension of flights could isolate the island nation, complicating aid and diplomacy.
This crisis underscores Madagascar’s recurring cycle of instability, which ironically means that the same CAPSAT unit that installed Rajoelina in 2009 is now turning against him amid youth demands for systemic change.
The president’s baseless claim of a coup may be a tactic to drum up support or justify repression, but it highlights genuine grievances about poverty, corruption, and resource mismanagement in a resource-rich but impoverished nation.
As of October 13, the uprising appeared more like a targeted riot than a full-blown overthrow, with Pikulas focusing on restoring peace rather than politics. Without swift dialogue, the situation risks spiraling into a broader conflict, potentially derailing economic recovery and deepening social divisions.
International calls for calm suggest monitoring rather than intervention, leaving resolution to domestic actors. Ultimately, this could empower youth movements across Africa, but failure to address root causes, such as inequality, can perpetuate instability.
