Tropical Storm Jerry formed on October 7, 2025, over the central Atlantic Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it is located approximately 11.5°N 44.6°W, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and is moving westward at 24 mph (38 km/h). The storm’s minimum central pressure is around 1006 mb (2200 mb).
It is expected to steadily intensify, potentially reaching Category 1 hurricane status by Wednesday, October 8.
In the short term (next 48 hours), Jerry will continue westward across the central Atlantic, with gradual strengthening expected.
Medium-term (Thursday and Friday, October 9 and 10).
The storm is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands (including areas such as Antigua, Barbuda, and the British Virgin Islands).
After this, it is expected to turn northward and weaken offshore, with no landfall projected on the U.S. mainland.
Models show little confidence in the exact track beyond 5 days, but the consensus is for a move away from major landmasses, including Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast.
Since Jerry formed just hours ago, direct impacts have been negligible so far. No damage, injuries, or disruptions have been reported.
However, potential consequences, based on current forecasts, include wind and rain, wind gusts up to 119 km/h (hurricane force), and heavy rainfall (possible 7.6 to 15 km/h). Storm surges (totaling up to 8 inches, with isolated totals of up to 8 inches) could lead to flash flooding, minor landslides, and power outages. Coastal areas could experience dangerous surf and rip currents.
Less pressure on infrastructure in vulnerable small island communities. Local authorities are likely preparing evacuations or warnings. Economic impacts could include temporary disruptions to tourism and shipping.
Jerry’s surge could generate intense surf and life-threatening rip currents along the U.S. East Coast (from Florida to the Carolinas) beginning later this week, potentially causing beach erosion and drowning. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are not expected.
Consequences: Increased lifeguard patrols and beach closures; low risk of major damage, but increased awareness is needed in the midst of an active season.
No major threats: Florida and the Gulf Coast face no direct impacts, a relief after recent storm activity in the region.
Tropical Storm Jerry represents a typical mid-season system in what has been an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but its remote track minimizes widespread consequences.
While the Leeward Islands should prepare for severe weather conditions over the next few days, the overall risk to populated areas is low, as no evacuations or emergency declarations have yet been reported.
This event underscores the importance of real-time monitoring, as track forecasts can change; residents in affected areas are advised to follow NHC updates and local alerts.
If Jerry intensifies as forecast, it could contribute to seasonal totals, but it does not pose a serious threat to infrastructure or lives at this time.
