{"id":45029,"date":"2025-10-26T21:04:31","date_gmt":"2025-10-26T21:04:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/codigopostalrd.net\/?p=45029"},"modified":"2025-10-26T21:40:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-26T21:40:58","slug":"las-elecciones-legislativas-en-argentina-libertad-avanza-lla-de-javier-milei-liderando-por-un-margen-estrecho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/codigopostalrd.net\/?p=45029","title":{"rendered":"Las Elecciones Legislativas en Argentina: Libertad Avanza (LLA) de Javier Milei liderando por un margen estrecho"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Especial para los seguidores de codigopostalrd.net<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A las 17:47 hs. de este domingo, las elecciones legislativas nacionales est\u00e1n en su fase final de votaci\u00f3n. Las mesas cierran a las 18:00 hs., y el escrutinio provisorio comenzar\u00e1 a publicarse a partir de las 21:00 hs. a trav\u00e9s del sitio oficial de la C\u00e1mara Nacional Electoral (CNE) y la app “Elecciones Legislativas 2025”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hasta el momento, no hay resultados oficiales, pero las encuestas de boca de urna y mesas testigo (de fuentes independientes y medios como Clar\u00edn, Infobae y CNN) indican tendencias claras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La participaci\u00f3n electoral ha sido moderada: al 58,5% del padr\u00f3n a las 17:00 hs., por debajo del 71,8% de 2021, reflejando un desencanto generalizado con la pol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se renuevan 127 bancas de diputados (mitad de la C\u00e1mara baja) y 24 bancas de senadores (un tercio del Senado), con un total de 35 millones de electores habilitados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por primera vez, se usa la Boleta \u00danica de Papel (BUP) en todo el pa\u00eds, lo que podr\u00eda demorar ligeramente el conteo inicial, pero asegura mayor transparencia. El foco est\u00e1 en distritos clave como Buenos Aires (35 diputados, 3 senadores), donde se concentra el 38% del padr\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tendencias Preliminares Basadas en Boca de Urna y Mesas Testigo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las proyecciones (promedio de CB Consultora, Zentrix, Rubik\u00f3n, Management & Fit y UDESO\/ESPOP) muestran un escenario ajustado, con La Libertad Avanza (LLA) de Javier Milei liderando por un margen estrecho. Datos de mesas en embajadas (ej. Austria) y provincias sugieren:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Buenos Aires (distrito decisivo): Fuerza Patria lidera con 47% (vs. 34% LLA), replicando su victoria provincial de septiembre. Esto podr\u00eda costarle a LLA hasta 10 bancas en la provincia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otros distritos: LLA domina en Mendoza (proyecci\u00f3n 40%) y CABA (45%), pero el peronismo resiste en el norte (Santiago del Estero, La Rioja).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Participaci\u00f3n por bloques: J\u00f3venes (<21 a\u00f1os) inclinan balanza a LLA (hasta 50% en mesas urbanas); mayores de 50 a\u00f1os favorecen al peronismo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estos son estimados; el escrutinio oficial podr\u00eda variar \u00b13-5 puntos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estas elecciones son un refer\u00e9ndum sobre la gesti\u00f3n de Milei a mitad de mandato (2023-2027). Con un Congreso actual fragmentado (LLA tiene solo 38 diputados y 7 senadores), los resultados redefinir\u00e1n el equilibrio de poderes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para el oficialismo (LLA), un triunfo por encima del 35% consolidar\u00eda el “veto presidencial” (necesita ~1\/3 de cada c\u00e1mara: 86 diputados, 24 senadores). Permitir\u00eda avanzar reformas pendientes (laboral, tributaria, previsional) sin bloqueos constantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, la derrota en Buenos Aires (38% del electorado) ya se percibe como un rev\u00e9s simb\u00f3lico, limitando la expansi\u00f3n territorial de LLA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para la oposici\u00f3n (Peronismo y JxC): Mantendr\u00edan control mayoritario (~55% combinado), fortaleciendo su rol de “freno” a la austeridad de Milei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El peronismo, liderado por Axel Kicillof en Buenos Aires, usar\u00eda el triunfo para presionar por derogar vetos (ej. ley de financiamiento universitario) y demandar m\u00e1s fondos provinciales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JxC podr\u00eda pivotar como “oposici\u00f3n constructiva”, ali\u00e1ndose con LLA en temas clave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fragmentaci\u00f3n general, con ~10% de indecisos y baja participaci\u00f3n, el Congreso post-10 de diciembre (inicio de mandatos) ser\u00eda a\u00fan m\u00e1s dividido, fomentando negociaciones ad hoc. Esto podr\u00eda paralizar la agenda, como en 2025 con comisiones investigadoras sobre esc\u00e1ndalos (ej. $LIBRA, fentanilo).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En el contexto regional, un LLA fortalecido alinear\u00eda m\u00e1s a Argentina con EE.UU. (bajo Trump, que ya respald\u00f3 un “salvataje” financiero), mientras un peronismo resurgente podr\u00eda tensar relaciones con el FMI y acreedores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Econ\u00f3micas: Mercados en vilo; el d\u00f3lar cripto cay\u00f3 a $1.563 a las 16:00 hs., reflejando cautela. Un LLA fuerte estabilizar\u00eda reservas del BCRA (+$10.000M desde 2023) y atraer\u00eda inversiones (Milei ya redujo inflaci\u00f3n de 300% a ~30% anual).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derrota oficialista podr\u00eda forzar devaluaci\u00f3n post-electoral (riesgo pa\u00eds subi\u00f3 200 puntos esta semana) y frenar el super\u00e1vit fiscal (15% PIB logrado en 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baja participaci\u00f3n (proyectada 65-70%) indica “anomia” (desencanto), con multas de $50-500 para ausentes. Incidentes menores (5 detenciones por intentos de voto irregular en Buenos Aires) no alteran la jornada pac\u00edfica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, inhabilitada por condena, no vota pero su sombra pesa en el peronismo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La BUP reduce riesgos de manipulaci\u00f3n (vs. boletas partidarias), pero desdoblamientos provinciales (10 distritos ya votaron locales) fragmentaron el voto, beneficiando al peronismo en feudos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A las 17:47 hs., la jornada transcurre con normalidad, pero las urnas ya marcan un empate t\u00e9cnico que no resuelve la polarizaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LLA se perfila para crecer (de 38 a ~80 diputados), pero no alcanzar\u00e1 mayor\u00edas absolutas, obligando a Milei a m\u00e1s alianzas y vetos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El peronismo retiene m\u00fasculo territorial, consolidando su rol opositor y cuestionando la “libertad” mile\u00edsta como “ajuste salvaje”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En \u00faltima instancia, estas elecciones no cambian el rumbo macro (crecimiento post-recesi\u00f3n), pero exponen la fatiga social: Argentina necesita consensos, no m\u00e1s trincheras.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El verdadero test ser\u00e1 el escrutinio de las 21:00 hs.; hasta entonces, la democracia argentina resiste, pero no prospera sin reformas compartidas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Especial para los seguidores de codigopostalrd.net A las 17:47 hs. de este domingo, las elecciones legislativas nacionales est\u00e1n en su fase final de votaci\u00f3n. Las mesas cierran a las 18:00 hs., y el escrutinio provisorio comenzar\u00e1 a publicarse a partir de las 21:00 hs. a trav\u00e9s del sitio oficial de la C\u00e1mara Nacional Electoral (CNE) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11714],"tags":[20417,18267,18666,18580,18584,20425,18583,18581,18670,6206,18628,18672,18673,18620,18747,18757,18625,18760,18667,18656,18622,18612,18582,18689,20421,18707,18637,192,18585,107,18271,18266,18701,126,318,18733,20428,18655,18680,18669,18614,18703,18706,18648,18702,18634,18674,18640,18272,18705,18677,18688,18744,18654,18675,18708,18611,18679,18765,18650,20419,18690,18753,18605,18641,18277,18275,18663,18618,18685,18603,22200,18709,18270,18681,18749,18647,18274,18658,18616,18657,18704,18606,17698,20427,18715,18684,18755,18643,145,18746,20423,20294,136,20262,7247,18276,18621,73,27,13152,18624,18598,132,20420,18743,18597,18668,18717,18714,18710,18686,18273,18739,18682,18268,18713,7248,95,116,18269,18626,18642,18623,18718,18712,18683,18639,90,20263,18608,18700,18282,18617,18631,123,18716,18691,18638,18591,18721,100,77,18736,18745,12482,18711,18719,18734,18633,18754,18662,18766,18646,18720,20415,18724,6433,18678,18694,18756,18723,18659,18644,109,20422,18652,18590,18750,18693,7783,18285,20416,18752,18604,18751,88,96,104,18738,18280,18722,18697,18725,18293,18610,18687,4347,18660,18741,18284,18287,20297,18729,18676,20426,18665,18728,18601,18737,110,156,20424,18627,18740,18726,18748,20418,18279,114,18731,18699,18292,18653,18692,18294,18664,18615,18696,18727,18595,119,18698,6036,159,18645,36,108,18596,18286,18732,166,134,18588,18735,18613,6850,128,18607,101,97,18730,11815,18278,18288,6978,18695,18593,18283,18764,18742,18651,18649,18594,18281,628,18586,18609,18291,18619,277,18635,6571,5117,18758,18759,18671,18661,18592,18600,18629,18636,18587,18762,18632,18289,18630,18589,18763,18290,18295,18599,18602,18761],"class_list":["post-45029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-internacionales","tag-12-de-octubre","tag-aguascalientes","tag-aisen","tag-alava","tag-albacete","tag-alex-russo","tag-alicante","tag-almeria-2","tag-amazonas","tag-amistosos","tag-ancash","tag-antartida-chilena","tag-antioquia","tag-antofagasta","tag-anzoategui","tag-apure","tag-apurimac","tag-aragua","tag-arauca","tag-arauco","tag-arequipa","tag-arica","tag-asturias","tag-atlantico","tag-austria-san-marino","tag-avila","tag-ayacucho","tag-azua","tag-badajoz","tag-bahoruco","tag-baja-california","tag-baja-california-sur","tag-baleares","tag-barahona","tag-barcelona","tag-barinas","tag-bielorrusia-dinamarca","tag-biobio","tag-bolivar","tag-boyaca","tag-buenos-aires","tag-burgos","tag-caceres","tag-cachapoal","tag-cadiz","tag-cajamarca","tag-caldas","tag-callao","tag-campeche","tag-cantabria","tag-capitan-prat","tag-caqueta","tag-carabobo","tag-cardenal-caro","tag-casanare","tag-castellon","tag-catamarca","tag-cauca","tag-cauquenes","tag-cautin","tag-cedulacion-saime","tag-cesar","tag-chacabuco","tag-chaco","tag-chanaral","tag-chiapas","tag-chihuahua","tag-chiloe","tag-choapa","tag-choco","tag-chubut","tag-ciudad-de-mexico-venezuela","tag-ciudad-real","tag-coahuila","tag-coihaique","tag-cojedes","tag-colchagua","tag-colima","tag-concepcion","tag-copiapo","tag-cordillera","tag-cordoba","tag-corrientes","tag-cristopher-sanchez","tag-croacia","tag-cuenca","tag-cundinamarca","tag-curico","tag-cusco","tag-dajabon","tag-delta-amacuro","tag-dilexi-te","tag-dina-boluarte","tag-distrito-nacional","tag-dodgers-vs-phillies-2","tag-duarte","tag-durango","tag-el-loa","tag-el-seibo","tag-elias-pina","tag-eliminatorias-europa","tag-elqui","tag-entre-rios","tag-espaillat","tag-exhortacion-apostolica-dilexi-te","tag-falcon","tag-formosa","tag-general-carrera","tag-gerona","tag-granada","tag-guadalajara","tag-guainia","tag-guanajuato","tag-guarico","tag-guaviare","tag-guerrero","tag-guipuzcoa","tag-gustavo-petro","tag-hato-mayor","tag-hermanas-mirabal","tag-hidalgo","tag-huancavelica","tag-huanuco","tag-huasco","tag-huelva","tag-huesca","tag-huila","tag-ica","tag-independencia","tag-inglaterra-gales","tag-iquique","tag-jaen","tag-jalisco","tag-jujuy","tag-junin","tag-la-altagracia","tag-la-coruna","tag-la-guajira","tag-la-libertad","tag-la-pampa","tag-la-rioja","tag-la-romana","tag-la-vega","tag-lambayeque","tag-lara","tag-las-palmas","tag-leon-2","tag-lerida","tag-lima","tag-limari","tag-linares","tag-llanquihue","tag-loreto","tag-los-andes","tag-lugo","tag-lvbp","tag-madre-de-dios","tag-madrid","tag-magallanes","tag-magdalena","tag-maipo","tag-malaga-2","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Elecciones Legislativas en Argentina: Libertad Avanza (LLA) de Javier Milei liderando por un margen estrecho - Codigo Postal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/codigopostalrd.net\/?p=45029\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Las Elecciones Legislativas en Argentina: Libertad Avanza (LLA) de Javier Milei liderando por un margen estrecho - Codigo Postal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Especial para los seguidores de codigopostalrd.net A las 17:47 hs. de este domingo, las elecciones legislativas nacionales est\u00e1n en su fase final de votaci\u00f3n. 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