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Hurricane Melissa, the thirteenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, remains a powerful Category 2 hurricane this morning.
At 8:00 a.m. EDT, its center was located approximately 26.8°N 72.7°W, about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving north-northeast at 21 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and a minimum central pressure of 965 mb.
The storm has intensified slightly after crossing Jamaica and Cuba, but it is expected to soon encounter stronger wind shear and cooler waters, which will limit its strengthening.
Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea around October 26 as a Category 4 hurricane and rapidly intensified to a Category 5 before making landfall near New Hope, Jamaica, on October 28. It was one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the region, with the third-lowest central pressure (892 mb) in the history of the Atlantic basin.
It weakened slightly upon landfall but maintained major hurricane strength (Category 3) as it passed over eastern Cuba on October 29, before accelerating northeastward across the Bahamas as a Category 1 storm yesterday.
The forecast track shows near-unanimous consensus among models: Melissa curves northeastward within the flow between a US trough and an Atlantic ridge, avoiding a direct landfall in the United States but brushing past Bermuda tonight.
By Friday, it will weaken rapidly due to 30-40 knot wind shear and sea surface temperatures dropping below 26°C, becoming a post-tropical cyclone by the weekend on its route to Newfoundland, where it could still generate strong winds and heavy swells.
Melissa’s slow movement at the beginning of its life cycle (with speeds of only 5 km/h) amplified its destructive potential, stalling over the Caribbean and causing torrential rains before accelerating.
It has already caused widespread devastation in the northern Caribbean, with preliminary damage estimates exceeding $8 billion.
In the Bahamas, heavy rains and gusty winds persist today, although alerts have been lifted as the center of the hurricane moves away.
In Bermuda, a hurricane warning remains in effect, with tropical storm conditions expected this afternoon and maximum sustained winds (145 to 177 km/h) forecast for tonight, which could cause power outages, downed trees, and 10 to 20 cm of rain.
Along the U.S. East Coast, indirect effects include 5 to 10 cm of heavy rain from the Mid-Atlantic region to New England through Friday, increasing the risk of flash flooding in urban areas, but there are no tropical storm warnings in effect. Rip currents remain a hazard at beaches from Florida to the Carolinas.
Hurricane Melissa exemplifies the increased risks of Atlantic hurricanes in an increasingly warmer climate, where ocean heat fueled unprecedented intensification and moisture-laden rainfall, with precipitation potential between 10% and 20% higher than in the pre-industrial era.
While its path avoided a direct hit on the continental United States, the storm’s legacy is profound devastation in the Caribbean: unprecedented for Jamaica, exacerbating Haiti’s chronic vulnerabilities, and testing Cuba’s resilience.
By early November, Melissa will dissipate as an extratropical low in the Atlantic, but its human cost—dozens dead, billions in losses—underscores the urgent need for improved regional preparedness, international aid, and global emissions reductions to prevent future superstorms.
