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From October 28, 2025, India’s climate situation is primarily characterized by the intensification and imminent landfall of Cyclone Montha, the first cyclonic storm of the season in the Bay of Bengal.
This weather system marks a major post-monsoon event, exacerbating vulnerabilities in eastern coastal regions, within a context of broader climate trends of increased cyclone frequency and intensity due to ocean warming.
Cyclone Montha, currently a cyclonic storm located approximately 560 km east-southeast of Chennai and 620 km south-southeast of Kakinada, is moving northwest at 15 km/h (9.3 mph) and intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm.
Landfall is expected between Machilipatnam and Kalingapatnam (near Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh) this afternoon or evening, with maximum sustained winds of 90-100 km/h (55-62 mph) with gusts up to 110 km/h (68 mph). Key immediate impacts include:
Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall (up to 20-25 cm (8-10 in) in 24 hours) in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal. Districts such as Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, Srikakulam (Andhra Pradesh), and Chennai (Tamil Nadu) have already experienced heavy downpours, causing flooding and traffic disruptions.
Gujarat has seen double the usual October rainfall, bringing seasonal totals to 127% of the average.
Strong winds and storm surge: Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h (62 mph) along the Andhra Pradesh coast, with waves of 2 to 4.7 meters (6.6 to 15.2 feet). A storm surge of one meter above the astronomical tide is inundating low-lying coastal areas in Andhra Pradesh and Yanam (Puducherry).
Infrastructure disruptions: 32 trains canceled or diverted by East Coast Railway; air operations suspended at Vijayawada, Visakhapatnam, and Rajahmundry airports. Schools closed in Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, and West Godavari districts (Andhra Pradesh).
The cyclone’s effects are exacerbating existing climate stressors in India, such as erratic monsoons and rising sea levels, with potential short- and long-term repercussions:
Disruptions to daily life, including power outages and roadblocks, have affected millions of people.
Evacuations have relocated nearly 10,000 people in Kakinada and Konaseema (Andhra Pradesh), as well as 126 pregnant women, to hospitals; Odisha is mobilizing from vulnerable areas with 110 cyclone shelters ready.
No serious casualties have yet been reported, but the risk of drowning, injuries from debris, and health problems from waterborne diseases following the floods is high.
Economic losses could reach billions, affecting fisheries, agriculture (e.g., delayed rice harvests in rain-affected areas), and tourism.
Excessive October rainfall in Gujarat and the eastern states could lead to soil erosion, crop damage, and nutrient leaching, threatening food security.
Landslides in the mountainous districts of Odisha and West Bengal pose risks to infrastructure and areas of high biodiversity.
The broader climate consequences include accelerated coastal erosion, commensurate with India’s vulnerability to 7% to 10% of global cyclone energy, despite covering only 2% of its land area.
Marginalized coastal communities, including fishermen, face disproportionate risks; they are urged to avoid boating until October 29 and 30. Real-time news on social media highlights community prayers and preparations in Andhra Pradesh, highlighting the psychological strain.
Cyclone Montha highlights India’s increasing exposure to extreme weather events. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts continued heavy rainfall until October 31, which will ease in Tamil Nadu this afternoon as the system moves north-northwestward.
Government responses—led by Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s “zero casualty” directive, Odisha’s relief preparations, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coordination with state leaders—demonstrate strong disaster management, with the NDRF and the Army on alert.
In a broader context, this event highlights the need to improve climate resilience: investing in early warning systems (such as those of the IMD), restoring mangroves to create natural barriers, and climate-adapted agriculture.
As India’s northeast monsoon pauses after Montha, continuous monitoring is crucial to mitigate cascading effects through the winter.
Overall, while immediate threats can be contained through proactive measures, the cyclone reinforces the urgency of reducing global emissions to slow the intensification of tropical storms.