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On October 26, 2025, Argentina held midterm legislative elections to renew half of the Chamber of Deputies (127 of 257 seats) and one-third of the Senate (24 of 72 seats).
These elections served as a crucial referendum on President Javier Milei’s libertarian reforms, implemented since his inauguration in 2023.
Polling stations operated from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. local time (11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. GMT), with preliminary results expected to begin around 9:00 p.m. local time (midnight GMT).
Voter turnout was historically low, reaching only around 58.5% at 5:00 p.m. local time (8:55 p.m. GMT), potentially the lowest in democratic history, approximately 10% lower than the 2021 vote, which was affected by the pandemic.
At 5:11 p.m. local time (8:56 p.m. GMT)—its specified timestamp—the polls had closed 11 minutes earlier, but official results were still unavailable.
Early exit polls and social media coverage indicated a tight race, with the Peronist forces (led by Unión por la Patria or UxP) leading nationally by 10-13 points, according to some unverified projections.
At the time, the atmosphere was tense: President Milei had previously voted in Buenos Aires, urging his supporters to “consolidate change” through social media, while opposition leaders like Axel Kicillof (governor of Buenos Aires) emphasized their anti-austerity messages.
Incidents of accusations of vote manipulation and verbal clashes (for example, against government spokesperson Manuel Adorni) arose on day X, accentuating the polarization. Markets were nervous, with the peso under pressure amid speculation of a post-election devaluation.
Projected Results (Based on Exit Polls and Initial Trends as of 5:11 PM local time)
Official counts had not yet begun, but exit polls from sources such as Management & Fit and Boca de Urnas presented a fragmented picture.
Nationally, Peronism appeared headed for a reduced plurality, reflecting voter fatigue with austerity despite macroeconomic progress.
Below is a summary of projections for vote percentages and seats at the national level (projections vary; these estimates aggregate conservative estimates from polls and debates on X):
Regional Highlights: Peronism dominated the province of Buenos Aires (UxP ~47%, LLA ~34%), an indicator of national trends. LLA led in Córdoba and Mendoza, but suffered setbacks in Jujuy, Tucumán, and Chaco. Senate races in eight provinces (e.g., Salta and Entre Ríos) favored the incumbent legislators.
These are unofficial; a full count could change the results by 2 to 5%. The new Single Paper Ballot was launched, potentially reducing fraud but complicating the recount.
Even without final counts, the elections had already had political repercussions, and in the markets at 5:11 PM:
A Peronist advantage would deny Milei veto-proof majorities, forcing her to resort to alliances with JxC (e.g., PRO). Projections of LLA seat increases (to approximately 30% of deputies) still break the opposition’s supermajorities, allowing for partial reforms such as labor deregulation. Low turnout favored government opponents, amplifying signs of social unrest.
Argentine stocks fell between 3% and 5% intraday, and the peso weakened 2% against the US dollar due to devaluation fears. Analysts anticipated a post-election adjustment if LLA underperforms, as the currency is kept overvalued to curb inflation.
Reports of voter suppression (e.g., vote theft in Buenos Aires) and attacks fueled outrage in the X party, deepening divisions.
Poverty (which fell from 57% to 32%) and job losses due to austerity were critical issues, with 55% of voters backing a “painful correction” in polls favoring LLA.
Reform stagnation: Without greater congressional support, Milei’s agenda (deregulation, pension adjustments) is stalling, with the risk of overriding the veto on spending bills. The rise of Peronism could reactivate subsidies, thus inflating deficits.
Links to the US: President Trump’s $40 billion bailout ($20 billion in swaps + $20 billion in credit lines) hangs in the balance; he warned of its withdrawal if the “socialists” prevail, which could trigger Argentina’s risk premium (already at around 1,200 basis points).
Market Volatility: A devaluation of the peso (10-20%) and a bond selloff are expected if Peronism advances, according to Oxford Economics. Inflation (31.8% annualized) could rebound without fiscal discipline.
Polarization Intensifies: A divided Congress prolongs the stagnation, evoking previous boom-bust cycles. LLA’s youthful/middle-class base is consolidated if gains are sustained, but Peronist resilience (via clientelism) blocks systemic change.
Global Precedent: Milei’s success validates libertarian upheavals elsewhere (e.g., among US conservatives); failure reinforces criticism of the social impact of austerity, influencing trade negotiations between Mercosur and the EU.
Social Repercussions: If poverty remains above 30%, protests could intensify, testing Milei’s security focus.
At 5:11 PM on election day, Argentina was at a crossroads: Milei’s experiment—drastically reducing inflation from 211% to 31.8%, achieving a fiscal surplus, and lifting more than 12 million people out of poverty—faced a severe test from voters scarred by recession and scandals.
Early trends suggest that Peronism’s narrow victory preserves the opposition’s influence, hindering reforms and inviting economic turbulence, but LLA’s gains indicate lasting support for disruption of the status quo.
This is not an outright rejection of change, but a demand for balance: macroeconomic triumphs must translate into tangible relief. For Milei, it is a mandate to negotiate, not dictate; for Argentina, a reminder that freedom only thrives with equity. The full recount will clarify that, but today’s vote highlights a nation weary of extremes, yet reluctant to fully return to the past. As Milei would say: “Long live freedom… but with a safety net?” The next chapter depends on compromise.
