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Tropical Storm Melissa, the thirteenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the central Caribbean Sea on October 21 and has been moving erratically and slowly since then.
As of early Friday morning (5:00 a.m. EDT), the storm was virtually stationary at coordinates 16.0° N, 75.5° W, approximately 265 km south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and 443 km southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Maximum sustained winds remain at 72 km/h (45 mph), with a minimum central pressure of 1,001 millibars. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 225 km (140 mph) east of the center.
The storm’s slow movement (around 3 km/h or less) over exceptionally warm Caribbean waters (with near-record temperatures due to weather influences) is driving its gradual organization, with thunderstorms increasingly wrapping around its core.
Melissa’s slow movement has already begun to bring heavy rainfall to the northern Caribbean, exacerbating vulnerability in areas prone to flooding and landslides.
Up to 25 cm (10 inches) of rain has been recorded in parts of southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic since Thursday, with isolated totals that could exceed 30 cm (12 inches) by evening.
In western Jamaica, 10 to 15 cm (4 to 6 inches) of rain are being recorded, causing flash flooding in urban areas and rural rivers.
The rugged terrain in these regions amplifies runoff, turning streets into rivers and saturating drainage systems.
Wind gusts of up to 80-96 km/h (50-60 mph) are affecting the southern coast of Jamaica, causing power outages and minor structural damage.
A storm surge of between 30 and 90 cm (12 to 36 inches) is raising tides along the southern coast of Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, causing coastal erosion and flooding in low-lying communities.
Landslides have been reported on deforested hillsides in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, burying roads and isolating villages. Airports in Kingston and Port-au-Prince are delaying flights, and emergency services are on high alert for rescues.
No coastal impacts have yet been reported in Cuba or Puerto Rico, but scattered showers are possible in the eastern Cuban province of Holguín.
The storm’s prolonged presence over the open Caribbean, but near vulnerable islands, poses increasing risks, especially for areas with socioeconomic challenges.
Haiti, still recovering from previous disasters, faces a worst-case scenario with potential “catastrophic” flash floods that could displace tens of thousands of people and deplete limited resources.
Jamaica’s tourism sector is severely impacted, with hotel evacuations and canceled cruises causing millions in economic losses. The Dominican Republic reports early damage to its coffee and banana crops.
Increased rainfall due to a warmer atmosphere (linked to climate change) could cause soil erosion, contaminating water supplies and damaging coral reefs through runoff.
Indirectly, the US East Coast could experience dangerous rip currents and waves between 1.2 and 1.8 meters by Sunday, increasing the risk of drowning on beaches.
Power grids are failing in affected areas, and humanitarian aid groups like the Red Cross are mobilizing, but logistical challenges due to flooded roads could delay aid.
Melissa’s track remains uncertain due to weak steering currents, but the consensus forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and models such as HAFS and GFS indicates that:
It will move slowly north-northwestward toward Jamaica at a speed of 5-8 km/h (3-5 mph), brushing the island’s southern coast late Saturday.
Winds could reach hurricane force (over 120 km/h) by Friday night, with rapid intensification possible over the weekend as wind shear decreases.
It will turn westward near or south of Jamaica, possibly stabilizing again south of western Cuba. Its peak intensity could reach Category 3 (179-207 km/h) on Sunday or Category 4 (209-250 km/h) early next week, with some models forecasting it to reach Category 5 (over 252 km/h) if it avoids landfall.
In the long term, starting Tuesday, it will retreat northeastward into the western Atlantic, possibly passing central Cuba or the Bahamas as a major hurricane.
There is a low probability of a track toward Florida if it changes course, but most scenarios favor a turn offshore, avoiding direct impacts on the continental U.S. Uncertainty beyond 5 days is high, with diverging spaghetti models.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for southwestern Haiti (from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince) and Jamaica, while a Tropical Storm Watch covers Jamaica. Those interested in Cuba, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should stay tuned for updates.
Tropical Storm Melissa exemplifies the dangers of slow-moving systems late in the season in a warmer climate, where stalled systems amplify rainfall by 10% to 20% and increase the risk of rapid intensification, potentially making it the most destructive event of the 2025 season.
Today, the focus is on immediate lifesaving measures in Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic, where flooding and mudslides could claim lives if swift evacuations are not implemented.
While threats to the United States appear minimal (beyond storm surge), the storm underscores the need for resilient infrastructure in the Caribbean.
Residents in the watch areas should heed NHC warnings, secure their supplies, and avoid travel. The Atlantic season, although coming to an end, reminds us that threats persist until November 30: stay alert.
