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As of October 22, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa was a developing system in the central Caribbean Sea, located approximately 483-490 kilometers south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
It has maximum sustained winds of 80 km/h (50 mph) and is moving westward or west-northwestward at 19-22 km/h (12-14 mph), but is expected to slow significantly in the coming days.
The storm is forecast to gradually strengthen, becoming a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday, with the possibility of rapid intensification due to warm Caribbean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions.
Its track is uncertain, and models show the possibility of a northward turn toward Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), Jamaica, or Cuba, or a westward drift toward Central America. Melissa is the thirteenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Today, (Wednesday, October 22, 2025), Melissa is primarily affecting the Caribbean region with increasing rainfall and gusty winds, although it has not yet made landfall.
Bands of showers and thunderstorms are extending northward, bringing 5 to 10 inches of rain to southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica from today through Friday, with possible rainfall of over 12 inches in isolated areas.
This creates a risk of flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas. Real-time reports indicate deep convection, and infrared satellite imagery shows the storm intensifying southeast of Jamaica early this morning.
Sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts are impacting nearby areas, including the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao), with Torrential rains and gusty winds. The storm surge is generating life-threatening waves and rip currents along the Caribbean coasts.
Between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, heavy rains are also being reported along the southern coasts, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides in vulnerable and deforested areas.
In Jamaica, rainfall and possible flooding are increasing, and local media are reporting on the preparations of residents and fishermen.
Other areas such as Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Bahamas could experience scattered, though less severe, rainfall today. No significant impacts have yet been reported in the continental United States, and models indicate a low threat.
Alerts in effect today include a hurricane watch for southern Haiti (including Port-au-Prince) and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica, indicating possible hurricane conditions within the next 48 hours.
Melissa’s slowness is amplifying its dangers, potentially leading to intense and prolonged rainfall, with compounded effects:
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides could displace communities, damage infrastructure, and deplete resources in already vulnerable regions like Haiti, where poverty, instability, and deforestation exacerbate the risks.
Local media reports highlight the concerns of residents, such as in Port Royal, Jamaica, where fishermen are preparing for disruptions.
Torrential rainfall (up to more than 25 cm in some areas over the next week) could cause widespread erosion, agricultural losses, and coastal flooding.
The storm’s development over unusually warm waters, the likelihood of which is increased due to climate change, could set a precedent for future intense events.
If the storm stalls, it could resemble past disasters like Hurricane Matthew (2016), resulting in a high death toll and billions in damage. No power outages or major casualties have been reported as of this morning, but the potential for escalation is high.
Tropical Storm Melissa poses a significant and evolving threat to the Caribbean today, primarily due to persistent heavy rainfall and the risk of intensification into a hurricane.
While no catastrophic events have yet been reported on October 22, the storm’s slow onset and uncertain path could lead to devastating and prolonged flooding similar to historical precedents.
Residents in affected areas should heed alerts and prepare evacuation plans, as impacts could rapidly worsen.
The continental United States faces minimal direct risk at this stage, but indirect effects, such as high surf, could occur next week.
Continuous monitoring is essential, as model discrepancies highlight the need for updated forecasts. This event underscores the influence of rising ocean temperatures on late-season storm potential in the Atlantic.
