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Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea on October 21, 2025, becoming the 13th named storm of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
It originated from a tropical wave (named Invest 98L) that moved off the coast of Africa earlier in the month and entered the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the system to a tropical storm after satellite imagery and reconnaissance data confirmed sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and a well-defined circulation.
As of October 21, Melissa was located about 200 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, moving west at 15 mph.
Melissa’s development was driven by sea surface temperatures above 32°C (90°F) in the Caribbean, low wind shear, and high atmospheric humidity.
However, its track remains uncertain due to variable steering currents, and multiple forecast models show divergent tracks.
The storm is expected to slow and potentially intensify over the next 48 to 72 hours, possibly reaching hurricane strength (winds of ≥120 km/h) if it persists in the central Caribbean.
Melissa’s initial impacts have been concentrated in the eastern and central Caribbean, where it has already caused disorganized but intense weather.
Since October 20, bands of thunderstorms have produced 10 to 20 cm of rain in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and parts of Venezuela.
Flash flooding occurred in low-lying areas of Trinidad and Tobago, closing several roads and forcing the evacuation of approximately 500 residents near river basins.
Gusts of up to 72 km/h (45 mph) lashed the Lesser Antilles, causing scattered power outages affecting approximately 10,000 users in Martinique and Guadeloupe (French territories).
Minor structural damage, including downed trees and power lines, was reported in Saint Lucia.
Storm surges of 1.8 to 3 meters (6 to 10 feet) generated rough seas, leading to port closures in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Several flights to Caribbean airports such as San Juan and Santo Domingo were delayed or canceled.
No fatalities or serious injuries have been reported as of October 21, but the storm’s slow progress raises concerns about its prolonged effects in vulnerable areas.
The storm’s aftermath is still unfolding, with the potential for intensification depending on its trajectory.
If Melissa follows the GFS model’s preferred track, it could approach Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Thursday, October 23, bringing 25 to 50 cm of rain.
Ongoing political instability in Haiti and its recovery from previous storms (e.g., the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac in 2024) could exacerbate flash flooding and landslides, displacing tens of thousands of people.
The Dominican Republic faces similar risks in its border regions, with potential economic losses in agriculture (e.g., coffee and banana crops) estimated at $50–100 million if heavy rains persist.
Jamaica and eastern Cuba are under a tropical storm watch, with forecasts of 125 to 25 cm of rain, causing urban flooding in Port-au-Prince and Havana. Puerto Rico, which is still recovering from Hurricane Fiona (2022), could experience indirect impacts, such as power grid overload, if the outer bands generate sustained rainfall.
Current models show low confidence in direct impacts to the U.S., with most projections indicating Melissa will move eastward into the open Atlantic after crossing Hispaniola, or westward toward Central America.
A low-probability scenario (10-20% according to ECMWF ensembles) implies a northward recurve toward Florida early next week, potentially as a Category 1-2 hurricane, threatening southeastern U.S. beaches with storm surges of up to 1.2 to 1.8 meters.
Oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico are monitoring indirect disturbances, although none are expected. Caribbean coral reefs could suffer sediment runoff due to flooding, affecting marine ecosystems.
Reports on social media from X (formerly Twitter) highlight community preparedness efforts, with users in Haiti sharing flood safety tips and urging evacuation of ravines and steep slopes.
Tropical Storm Melissa exemplifies the risks of the late Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30, 2025.
While it has caused limited disruptions so far, its potential to stall over the warm waters of the Caribbean poses a significant threat of catastrophic flooding in Hispaniola, particularly in Haiti, where a lack of infrastructure amplifies the dangers.
Forecasters emphasize that even a “fast-track” scenario could generate more than 50 cm of rain in asymmetric bands, underscoring the need for resilient planning in climate-vulnerable regions.
Residents of the Greater Antilles should stock up on essential items, stay abreast of NHC updates, and avoid flood-prone areas. International aid organizations such as Convoy of Hope are mobilizing to provide assistance.
Model splits (e.g., GFS vs. ECMWF) highlight the importance of ensemble guidance; A westward drift could delay threats to the U.S. but prolong exposure in the Caribbean.
Melissa, the 13th named storm, places 2025 among the top 10 years for activity, reinforcing the trend of warming oceans driving more intense tropical activity.
