Tropical Storm Jerry formed on October 7, 2025, in the central Atlantic Ocean, becoming the tenth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
As of early October 8, it was located approximately 890 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and gusts up to 70 mph.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at 23 mph, but is expected to slow and turn northward in the coming days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters indicate that it is steadily strengthening, and Jerry is likely to reach hurricane status (Category 1) on Thursday, October 9, potentially peaking with winds around 90 mph near the Leeward Islands late Thursday or Friday.
Intensity forecasts vary: some models suggest it could remain a moderate hurricane, while others predict weakening after reaching peak intensity due to increased wind shear. Reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system today to refine these forecasts.
Jerry is still in open water and has not yet made direct landfall, so impacts have been minimal to date. However, preliminary effects are beginning to be felt in and around the Northern Leeward Islands:
Northern Leeward Islands (e.g., Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Barthélemy): Tropical storm warnings have been issued, with favorable weather conditions expected Thursday night through Friday. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 cm (2 to 4 inches) is forecast, which could cause flash flooding in higher elevations.
Storm surge is already generating life-threatening waves and rip currents along the coasts.
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: Be aware of the risk of wind, waves, and rain, although direct impacts are unlikely.
No significant disruptions to shipping or aviation have yet been reported, but storm surge could affect beaches as far north as Puerto Rico.
No impacts have been reported on the continental U.S., Florida, or other major landmasses at this time. Consequences
Given Jerry’s projected path—passing near or north of the Leeward Islands before turning northeastward into the Atlantic—consequences are expected to be localized and moderate, primarily related to meteorological hazards rather than widespread destruction:
Flash flooding from heavy rainfall could lead to road closures, minor landslides, and power and water service disruptions in the northern Leeward Islands.
Historical precedents (e.g., similar brushes with late-season storms) suggest potential economic losses in the millions in tourism-dependent areas, although no evacuations have currently been ordered.
Dangerous surf and rip currents pose risks to beachgoers and boaters, potentially causing beach erosion and minor coastal flooding during high tides. This could indirectly impact fishing communities and delay maritime traffic.
The risk of fatalities or serious injuries is low based on current forecasts, but vulnerable populations in low-lying island areas should prepare for power outages and limited access to basic services. No long-term environmental consequences (e.g., oil spills or ecosystem damage) are anticipated.
Another non-tropical coastal storm (cold front) is expected to interact with Jerry, diverting it out to sea and potentially amplifying rain, wind (gusts up to over 40 mph), and waves along the southeastern coast (from Carolina to Virginia) this weekend. This could lead to coastal flooding and beach erosion, but is not related to Jerry’s core.
The fallout appears to be contained, with no threat to oil platforms, major ports, or the U.S. mainland. The storm’s late-season arrival coincides with a more heavily loaded 2025 hurricane season, which has already seen three major hurricanes (Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto) but fewer hurricanes than average.
Tropical Storm Jerry exemplifies the unpredictable nature of late-October Atlantic systems, where cooler upper-level conditions and steering currents often limit intensification and direct threats to the United States.
While it is likely to brush the Leeward Islands as a Category 1 hurricane, its northward turn, driven by an incoming cold front, should spare the Caribbean and the United States from severe impacts, reducing the overall risk profile.
Residents in the watch areas should secure their properties, avoid coastal waters, and follow NHC updates, as small track errors could alter rainfall totals.
This event underscores the above-average activity of the 2025 season (10 named storms to date, exceeding early-season forecasts), driven by warm sea surface temperatures but tempered by wind shear.
No additional tropical development is expected in the Gulf for 7 to 10 days, although a broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean could spawn another system in mid-October. Preparation remains key as the season extends through November 30: trim trees, stock up on supplies, and monitor forecasts to mitigate even minor risks.
